Mortgage Rates Today, Sep. 9, 2024: Will Last Friday's Good News Last?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 5.81% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 4.81%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.19%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.4%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
In brief
Friday's jobs report sent mortgage rates moderately lower. And the chances improved of the Federal Reserve cutting general interest rates by half a percentage point next Wednesday.
However, the size of that cut is still a coin toss.
Data and events this week could improve or worsen the odds. And Wednesday's consumer price index is especially important in this respect.
We need to see that half-point cut in order for mortgage rates to fall further. Markets have already priced in a quarter-point one so that's unlikely to make much difference.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 5.81% | 5.93% | +0.01% | -0.76% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 4.81% | 4.98% | -0.01% | -0.82% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.19% | 6.09% | -0.01% | -0.68% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.17% | 5.38% | -0.02% | -0.72% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.15% | 5.35% | +-0% | -0.62% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.4% | 6.5% | -0.01% | -0.71% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.3% | 6.43% | -0.01% | -0.43% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 5.91% | 6.03% | +0.02% | -0.75% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 4.81% | 4.98% | -0.01% | -0.82% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.2% | 6.11% | -0.01% | -0.67% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.18% | 5.39% | -0.02% | -0.7% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.36% | 6.48% | +0% | -0.44% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
Neither of today's economic reports typically moves mortgage rates far, if at all. Wholesale inventories and consumer credit data rarely appear on the radar of investors in mortgage-backed securities, the bonds that largely determine mortgage rates.
And tomorrow's small business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) is similar. It will need to contain some highly surprising numbers to have much effect on those rates.
However, Tuesday's televised debate between the presidential candidates could have an impact, though not until Wednesday. Mortgage rates might benefit if Vice President Kamala Harris is most widely seen as winning.
Although former President Donald Trump has plenty of supporters on Wall Street, investors generally fear that his policies on tariffs and the deficit could fuel inflation. And that's bad for mortgage rates.
Wednesday's consumer price index
Things change up a gear on Wednesday. Because that morning brings the consumer price index (CPI). And that has plenty of potential to affect mortgage rates.
According to MarketWatch, markets are expecting the CPI to be largely unchanged in August compared to July. Only the year-over-year figure is expected to change: down to 2.6% from 2.9%.
If Wednesday's numbers are precisely on forecast, mortgage rates might barely budge. If they're lower than expected, those rates might fall. But higher-than-expected figures could push them upward.
The rest of this week
Thursday brings initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep. 7 plus the producer price index (PPI) for August. Either of these could affect mortgage rates but probably nothing like as critically as the CPI.
We'd like to see more new claims for unemployment benefits but lower PPI numbers than markets are expecting.
Also on Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB, the eurozone's equivalent of our Fed) is due to announce its rates policy, with most expecting a cut.
Friday's preliminary consumer sentiment index for September is expected to show an improvement compared to August's. But those who want lower mortgage rates would prefer it didn't.
Overall
All this week's data and events will likely be seen through the prism of how they might affect the Fed's thinking ahead of next Wednesday's (Sep. 18) rate announcement.
That will bring not only that announcement but also a "dot plot," which will give clues to future rate cuts. For markets and mortgage rates, the more cuts that are planned, and the bigger they are, the better.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
