Mortgage Rates Today, Sep. 6, 2024: Jobs Report Brings Good News
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 5.8% today, a decrease of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 4.82%, down by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.2%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.4%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
In brief
This morning's jobs report (aka the employment situation report) for August was likely friendly to mortgage rates today and for some time to come.
We have to say "likely" because sometimes markets seize on a minor number buried inside an economic report and react counterintuitively to the headline figures. And, occasionally, they even appear to respond perversely to new data in ways that leave us scratching our heads.
But, right now, we all have every reason to welcome this morning's figures. Don't expect mortgage rates today to plummet. But they're more likely to fall than rise.
We should mention that Mortgage News Daily reckons that mortgage rates closed yesterday at their lowest level since April 2023. All the tiny falls we've been seeing recently have been adding up.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 5.8% | 5.91% | -0.08% | -0.73% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 4.82% | 4.98% | -0.06% | -0.82% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.2% | 6.11% | -0.02% | -0.61% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.19% | 5.4% | -0.01% | -0.67% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.16% | 5.35% | +0.01% | -0.65% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.4% | 6.51% | -0.03% | -0.76% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.31% | 6.43% | -0.09% | -0.46% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 5.89% | 6% | -0.05% | -0.75% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 4.82% | 4.99% | -0.07% | -0.81% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.21% | 6.12% | -0.02% | -0.6% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.21% | 5.42% | -0.02% | -0.66% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.36% | 6.48% | -0.14% | -0.53% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
This morning's August jobs report will probably exert downward pressure on mortgage rates. It showed an increasing tightening in the labor market.
It's not only we who have been viewing today's report as crucial to the direction markets and mortgage rates take.
This morning's Markets A.M. e-newsletter from the Wall Street Journal led with: "Investors are awaiting the all-important August jobs report, looking for clues on how much the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates later this month."
Meanwhile, yesterday evening's Nightcap e-newsletter from CNN Business said, "Tune in Friday morning for the most important jobs report since ... last month's jobs report. OK but seriously, Friday's report on August job growth is actually, like, a big deal. Is the job market slowing down gracefully into a soft and smooth landing, or is it spiraling dangerously?"
A bad report would show the labor market tightening, and would likely be good for mortgage rates. That's because it might scare the Federal Reserve into cutting general interest rates more aggressively when it announces its near-certain cut in 12 days' time.
But can we say the jobs market is "spiraling dangerously?" Perhaps not yet.
Twenty-five minutes after the report landed, the price of mortgage-backed securities (the type of bond that largely determines mortgage rates) was only moderately higher, which typically means those rates would have been moving only moderately lower.
Overnight, investors were betting 41% on a half-percentage-point cut to 59% on a quarter-percentage-point one, according to the CME FedWatch tool. But the jobs report has the potential to change that, probably by increasing wagers on the larger cut.
Today's actual numbers
Here are this morning's numbers (actuals) alongside market expectations and July's figures:
- Nonfarm payrolls (new jobs created that month). Actual 142,000. Markets were expecting 161,000, up from July's 112,000 but well below the recent average
- Unemployment rate. Actual 4.2%. Markets were correctly expecting that to fall back to 4.2% from July's 4.3%
- Hourly wages. Actual 0.4%. Markets were expecting these to have grown by 0.3% that month, up from July's 0.2%
Markets were expecting some bounce back from July's terrible numbers because Hurricane Beryl skewed the earlier figures.
Today, only hourly average earnings rose further than expected. That's not good for mortgage rates. So, we must hope markets continue their usual practice of paying more attention to nonfarm payrolls.
Later today
Markets will be keen to learn how senior Federal Reserve officials think today's jobs data have affected the likely size of the Fed's imminent, almost certain, rate cut. New York Fed President John C. Williams and Fed Gov. Christopher Waller might give them clues when they each speak later this morning.
Next week
Normally, we'd be saying that next Wednesday's consumer price index (CPI) might overtake today's jobs report. And it's still possible that it could.
But it's much less likely this month than is usually the case. The Fed and most investors seem to have switched their focus from inflation to employment. So, the CPI would have to show a very serious change in price rises to affect the mood set by today's report.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
