Mortgage Rates Today, Sep. 30, 2024: It's Jobs Week
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.15% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.13%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.47%, having dropped by 0.08. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.72%, reflecting an increase of 0.05%.
In brief
This week's economic reports are likely to be dominated by employment data. A couple of labor-market reports are due earlier in the week.But Friday's jobs report for September is the undoubted star. Indeed, it will probably turn out to be October's star.
Of course, there are other data on the calendar, too. And it's worth noting that month ends can slightly shift mortgage rates.
But that's not because the environment for those rates has changed. It's just investors tidying up their portfolios ready for a new reporting period.
Today's highlight might be a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at lunchtime. Chances are, his message won't have changed much since his news conference on Sep. 18. The only important economic report since then was last Friday's inflation data. And that confirmed that prices continued to cool in August, something the Fed had anticipated.
Still, markets regard Mr. Powell's utterances similarly to how ancient Greeks thought of the Oracle of Delphi. And they'll study his every word for nuances that he may or may not have intended.
Today's only economic report is the September Chicago Business Barometer. And it's been a while since it last affected mortgage rates. For the record, markets expect it to deteriorate to 45.3 from 46.1 in August.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.15% | 6.19% | +-0% | -0.19% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.13% | 5.2% | -0.01% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.47% | 6.31% | -0.08% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.47% | 5.62% | -0.02% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.36% | 5.5% | -0.18% | -0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.72% | 6.75% | +0.05% | -0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.51% | 6.56% | +0.03% | -0.27% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.14% | 6.18% | -0.01% | -0.32% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 4.97% | 5.03% | -0.04% | -0.41% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.46% | 6.3% | -0.08% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.47% | 5.62% | -0.02% | -0.2% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.44% | 6.48% | +0.03% | -0.45% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
So, mortgage rates today are more likely to be affected by month-end tidying and Mr. Powell's speech than this morning's sole economic report.
Tomorrow may be different. We're due the August job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS). Markets don't always pay attention to this. But they're focusing on employment data right now. So, they may.
And it provides worthwhile insights into trends in the labor market. So, interesting data could have an impact.
Also tomorrow, we're due two September purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) for the manufacturing sector. These show activity levels in purchasing departments and can be good indicators of future economic activity. But they tend to affect mortgage rates only modestly and temporarily. Markets expect the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) one to hold steady at 47.2%.
Tomorrow's construction spending data also tend to have a limited impact on mortgage rates. Tomorrow's figures, for August, are expected to improve considerably: up to +0.2% that month compared to -0.3% in July.
Four senior Fed officials have speaking engagements tomorrow. Their voices are nothing like as powerful as Jerome Powell's. Still, they might have some modest effect on mortgage rates. We're due speeches from several others over the following three days.
Mortgage rates later this week
There's more of the same on Wednesday and Thursday. Blah, blah, blah, the ADP employment report on Wednesday. Blah, blah, blah, two more PMIs (for the services sector) on Thursday.
Yes, these each might have a limited impact on mortgage rates. But any effect all these reports have will likely be blown out of the water by Friday's official jobs report for September, formally called the employment situation report.
If, this time next week, mortgage rates are significantly different than they are this morning, the jobs report will very likely have caused the change.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
