Mortgage Rates Today, Sep. 3, 2024: It's Jobs Week
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.33% today, a decrease of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.36%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.65%, having dropped by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.85%, reflecting no change.
In brief
For weeks now, mortgage rates have been drifting, moving only modestly each day. That's because investors have been unable to make up their minds between two alternatives.
Namely, is the U.S. about to slide into recession? Or will the Federal Reserve pull off a rare feat and deliver a "soft landing?" One of those happens when too-high inflation is tamed without triggering a recession.
Economic data, including last Friday's inflation figures, haven't recently given investors a clear steer over their dilemma.
Official jobs reports are typically one of the two most influential data sets each month. If this Friday's is obviously good or bad, it could set the tone for markets and mortgage rates for the next couple of weeks.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.33% | 6.37% | -0.02% | -0.15% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.43% | -0.02% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.65% | 6.49% | -0.04% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.74% | 5.89% | +0.03% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.7% | 5.74% | -0.03% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.85% | 6.88% | +-0% | -0.22% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.81% | 6.87% | -0.01% | +0.24% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.46% | 6.49% | +0% | -0.14% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.42% | -0.03% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.65% | 6.49% | -0.04% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.74% | 5.9% | +0.03% | -0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.9% | 6.96% | +0.01% | +0.25% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today and later this week
This morning's economic reports are of the type that tends to move mortgage rates only modestly and temporarily. Having said that, any report can have a bigger impact if it contains sufficiently shocking data.
The ones most likely to affect mortgage rates today are a couple of August purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) for the manufacturing sector. These are helpful guides to economic activity because they measure what's happening in organizations' purchasing departments.
MarketWatch says markets are expecting today's PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) to show a moderate improvement to 47.9% from 46.8% in July. There's no forecast for the PMI from S&P Global.
Later this morning, we'll have construction spending figures for July. That's expected to fall by -0.1%. But it's better than June's bigger drop of -0.3%.
Market expectations are important because investors tend to act on them in advance of each report's publication. So, they're already baked into mortgage rates. And it's the gap between actual numbers and what was expected that generates volatility.
Remember, mortgage rates tend to fall when the economy's doing badly. So, we want to see worse-than-expected data this week.
We'll brief you on tomorrow's and Thursday's reports before they land. But, even if they bring surprising numbers, their effect is likely to be temporary. That's because Friday's jobs report will likely wipe out their impact.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
