Mortgage Rates Today, Sep. 27, 2024: Today's Inflation Report Likely Good for Rates
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.16% today, a decrease of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.15%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.55%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.67%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
In brief
We delayed our publication time this morning so we could bring you actual figures from this week's most important economic report. That's the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for August.
And those figures will likely prove good for mortgage rates. They showed consumer inflation running cooler than expected.
This week, we've been reporting that mortgage rates have risen moderately since last Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy updates. So, you may have been surprised by Freddie Mac's weekly rates figures, published yesterday, which suggested they'd actually fallen a little.
Freddie provides a great way to track mortgage rates over time. But its survey's quirky methodology quite often throws up out-of-date or simply weird numbers. And we suspect that's the case this week.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.16% | 6.19% | -0.03% | -0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.15% | 5.21% | +0% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.55% | 6.39% | +0% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.49% | 5.64% | +-0% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.54% | 5.68% | +0% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.67% | 6.7% | +0.03% | -0.2% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.48% | 6.54% | +0% | -0.3% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.16% | 6.19% | -0.01% | -0.25% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.01% | 5.07% | +0.02% | -0.38% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.54% | 6.39% | +0% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.48% | 5.63% | +0% | -0.13% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.4% | 6.45% | +0% | -0.42% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
This morning's PCE price index has four headline components. Two cover the month surveyed (August) and the other two measure year-over-year price changes (Sep. 1, 2023, to Aug. 31, 2024).
Why two numbers for each period? Well, one is the straight PCE price index, which covers all the surveyed prices. But the other is called the "core" PCE price index. And that's the same as the straight one except food and energy prices have been stripped out.
You are interested in the straight version. But markets, the Fed and economists prefer the core measure. That's because food and energy prices are exceptionally volatile, and removing them reveals the underlying trend.
Here are this morning's actual numbers (in bold) alongside what MarketWatch says markets were expecting :
- August PCE index — Actual 0.1. Markets expected a fall to 0.1% from July's 0.2%
- YOY PCE index — Actual 2.2%. Markets expected a fall to 2.3% from July's 2.5%
- August core PCE — Actual 0.1%. Markets expected this to be unchanged from July's 0.2%
- YOY core PCE — Actual 2.7%. Markets expected 2.7%, slightly up from July's 2.6%
For mortgage rates to fall, we needed today's actual figures to beat market expectations. And that meant lower-than-expected numbers.
As you can see, all of this morning's numbers were either below expectations or met them. And that would normally exert downward pressure on mortgage rates. However, markets occasionally react perversely to important economic reports so we have to wait to see their response.
This morning's other potential mortgage rate mover is the final consumer sentiment index for September. And it's expected to improve to 69.3 from 69.0.
But it isn't due until 10 a.m. Eastern. And we won't wait for it to land because we doubt it will affect those rates all that much.
Also today, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman has a speaking engagement.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
