Mortgage Rates Today, Sep. 25, 2024: Rates Still Becalmed

In brief

Anyone who tells you they can predict future mortgage rates is lying. All people like us can do is gather as much information as possible and present you with the scenario we think is most likely.

And often, commentators on mortgage rates disagree. So, as those rates seem to be in a quiet patch at the moment, we thought we'd explore some differing views.

Absent some other stimulation, we're expecting today to be another calm one for mortgage rates. The only economic report on the calendar is new home sales in August. And Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler has a speaking engagement this afternoon.

Mortgage rate commentators disagree

This time last week, we were breathless in anticipation of that day's Federal Reserve announcements updating its policy on general interest rates. We said we "feared" considerable volatility in the coming days, with mortgage rates probably rising.

Well, we were a bit right. According to Mortgage News Daily's (MND's) mortgage rate archive, the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.11% last Tuesday evening. Yesterday evening, one week later, it was 6.18%. That's a 7-basis-point rise (a basis point is one-hundredth of 1%).

But 7 basis points is nothing over a week. Heck, within the last year, we've seen a few movements three times as big over single days. So, the volatility didn't materialize.

We feared it because many investors were expecting 10 rate cuts between Oct. 18 and the end of 2025. And we correctly thought that unrealistic: the Fed penciled in only six.

What we got wrong was investors' reaction to that gap. We thought they might throw a tantrum. But they merely pouted and shrugged.

A current disagreement

On Monday, Veterans United Home Loans' Capital Markets Analyst Afifa Saburi, wrote, "This week’s [gross domestic product] GDP and [personal consumption expenditures] PCE data shouldn’t impact rates, as the growth and inflation data has stayed mostly consistent. Any movement in the bond market is likely to come from Fed speak, some of which we have already witnessed."

Saburi was talking there about speeches by senior Fed officials. And there's a ton of those scheduled for this week.

Yesterday, we wrote, "By the way, senior Fed officials have a large number of speaking engagements this week. But we already know the central bank's thinking from last Wednesday's events. So, they'd have to say some shocking things to have any impact on mortgage rates."

Meanwhile, also yesterday, MND's Matthew Graham proposed the opposite view from Saburi. He thought movements this week would be pretty much entirely down to economic data. But he also provided a bridge between the two sides.

Both markets and the Fed are hugely influenced by some types of economic data — and in similar ways. And tomorrow's GDP growth figures and Friday's inflation numbers in the PCE price index have the potential to change both — though Saburi is right that they probably won't.

But whether mortgage rates move in direct response to the data or to "Fed speak" changing with those data is pretty academic.

In case you were wondering, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis defines capital markets thus: "Capital markets are financial markets that bring buyers and sellers together to trade stocks, bonds, currencies, and other financial assets."

Coming up

Mortgage rates tomorrow and Friday

We've already said that today's economic report rarely affects mortgage rates. But things change tomorrow and on Friday.

Tomorrow's reports are:

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep. 21 — Markets are expecting a small increase to 223,000 from 219,000
• Durable-goods orders for August — Markets are expecting these to plummet to -3.0% from July's +9.8%
• Third and final reading of GDP in the second quarter — Markets are expecting this to be unchanged since the second reading at 3.0%

Mortgage rates are likely to fall if those figures are worse than markets are expecting. That's a higher number for initial claims for unemployment benefits but lower ones for the others. No fewer than seven senior Fed officials will be speaking in public tomorrow after those reports land.

We'll brief you on Friday's reports tomorrow. But they'll likely be dominated by the PCE price index, which is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation.