Mortgage Rates Today, Sep. 23, 2024: Fed Resolved. Now a Government Shutdown Looms
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.14% today, an increase of 0.05% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.08%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.48%, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.56%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
In brief
Mortgage rates ended last week just modestly higher than they started it, according to Mortgage News Daily's rates archive. And that counts as a win.Although we got a nice, fat, half-point cut to general interest rates last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve quashed more optimistic investors' hopes for future cuts. And that could have pushed mortgage rates much higher than they actually went.
We can't be certain that markets are done responding to last Wednesday's Fed events. However, last Friday's modest fall in mortgage rates was a good sign.
But our sigh of relief contains a squeak of anxiety. Because we face a government shutdown at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on Oct. 1. More on that, below.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.14% | 6.18% | +0.05% | -0.25% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.08% | 5.14% | +0.01% | -0.42% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.48% | 6.32% | +0.05% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.5% | 5.66% | +0.09% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.52% | 5.66% | +0.08% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.56% | 6.6% | -0.04% | -0.4% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.5% | 6.55% | -0.07% | -0.25% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.11% | 6.15% | +0.01% | -0.4% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 4.93% | 4.99% | -0.02% | -0.56% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.46% | 6.3% | +0.06% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.5% | 5.65% | +0.09% | -0.19% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.42% | 6.47% | -0.04% | -0.39% |
Looming government shutdown
It's hard to know how a government shutdown might affect mortgage rates.
On the one hand, it's likely to make America a little — or more than a little — poorer, depending on how long it lasts. Indeed, a sustained one might nudge us closer to a recession. And that should help drag mortgage rates lower, though at a huge cost.
But, on the other hand, a shutdown might raise questions about the dependability of government debt. This is not like a debt ceiling dispute, which really could see the U.S. Treasury default on its bonds, causing global financial chaos. But it's not nothing.
Whatever effects it might have on mortgage rates, a government shutdown is highly likely to disrupt the processing of new mortgage applications, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). It prepared a document on the likely implications the last time (March 2024) a shutdown looked likely.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shouldn't be affected as much as other types of loans. However, all applications are likely to take longer to process.
If you're about to make an application or have one in the pipeline, talk to your lender about getting in some essential steps before any shutdown begins. That includes, according to the MBA, social security number verification, and the issuing of new policies by the National Flood Insurance Program. USDA loans may be the most delayed.
Coming up
Mortgage rates today and this week
This morning should bring two September purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) from S&P Global. There's one for each of the services and manufacturing sectors.
MarketWatch says markets are expecting the services PMI to edge lower to 55.4 from 55.7 in August. They're anticipating that the manufacturing one will rise to 48.4 from 47.9.
As usual, mortgage rates might fall (though probably only a little) if today's actual numbers are lower than expected. But they might rise if they're higher.
The star report this week is due on Friday. It is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. And that's the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation.
Yes, the Fed's largely switched its focus from inflation to employment. But a shockingly bad (meaning hotter-than-expected) PCE price index could change all that — and drive up mortgage rates.
We're not expecting a shockingly bad report. But it's a small risk you should be aware of.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
