Mortgage Rates Today, Sep. 20, 2024: Lower Rates Reviving Home Listings and Refis
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.08% yesterday, an increase of 0.46% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.05%, up by 0.4%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.43% yesterday, having risen by 0.41. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.6%, reflecting an increase of 0.43%.
In brief
Writing his weekly update yesterday, Freddie Mac's chief economist said, "Mortgage rates continued declining towards the six percent mark, reviving purchase and refinance demand for many consumers."
That makes sense. But we should add a caveat.
Freddie measures changes in mortgage rates every week from Tuesday to Tuesday. So its latest figures don't reflect two days of rises following Wednesday's Fed event.
Still, those rises were modest and, as long as they don't continue too long, shouldn't disrupt the central message. Namely, things are looking good for the housing market.
There are no economic reports on today's calendar. So, we'll look instead at how expert forecasts for future mortgage rates have been changing.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.08% | 6.12% | +0.46% | -0.35% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.05% | 5.12% | +0.4% | -0.48% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.43% | 6.28% | +0.41% | -0.38% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.41% | 5.56% | +0.43% | -0.35% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.44% | 5.58% | +0.49% | -0.37% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.6% | 6.63% | +0.43% | -0.4% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.56% | 6.62% | +0.31% | -0.23% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.08% | 6.12% | +0.37% | -0.47% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 4.94% | 5% | +0.29% | -0.59% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.41% | 6.26% | +0.4% | -0.41% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.41% | 5.56% | +0.41% | -0.33% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.46% | 6.5% | +0.11% | -0.4% |
Coming up
Expert forecasts
Fannie Mae published its September forecast of mortgage rates only a couple of hours after the Federal Reserve's XL cut to general interest rates. That was either brave or it had two forecasts set to go and chose the one that reflected the Fed's announcement.
Fannie thinks rates for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages will average 6.6% in the current quarter and 6.2% in the next. After that, it's forecasting a further fall in each 2025 quarter so they average 5.7% in the last quarter of that year.
This is in line with what we've been saying for months. Mortgage rates are likely to fall but relatively slowly.
The Mortgage Bankers Association is yet to publish its September forecast. We'll bring you its figures when it does.
Mortgage rates today and next week
Just because no economic reports are scheduled today that doesn't mean mortgage rates won't move. Markets may still be subject to the turbulence caused in the wake of the Fed's rate cut, for example.
Next week begins with a couple of purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) from S&P Global. There's one on Monday for each for the services and manufacturing sectors.
MarketWatch is yet to publish market expectations for these or other reports over the next seven days. But, assuming we have them by then, we'll bring them to you early on Monday morning.
The other report to look out for next week is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, due a week today. This is the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation.
Yes, the Fed's largely switched its focus from inflation to employment. But a shockingly bad (meaning hotter-than-expected) PCE price index could change all that — and drive up mortgage rates.
We're not expecting a shockingly bad report. But it's a small risk you should be aware of.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
