Mortgage Rates Today, Sep. 12, 2024: Rates at 18-Month Low
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 5.67% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 4.71%, down by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.12%, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.31%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
In brief
Mortgage News Daily (MND) calculates that average mortgage rates today start at an 18-month low. Since April, they've been falling consistently (punctuated with occasional rises) and fairly quickly.
We reckon they'll likely continue on that trajectory for some time — but the speed of falls will probably slow.
Might today's economic reports change things? We doubt it. They may trigger one of those occasional rises (nobody knows yet) but they're not the sorts of reports that typically transform the outlook.
The next truly big event is next Wednesday's announcement by the Federal Reserve of the size of its near-certain cut to general interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, it's looking likely that will be a quarter-percentage-point reduction, which might leave mortgage rates where they are or a little higher.
But a surprise half-percentage-point cut could send mortgage rates yet lower.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 5.67% | 5.78% | +0.01% | -0.83% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 4.71% | 4.88% | -0.03% | -0.83% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.12% | 6.03% | +0.05% | -0.74% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.07% | 5.29% | +0.02% | -0.83% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.03% | 5.23% | -0.05% | -0.92% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.31% | 6.42% | -0.01% | -0.77% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.21% | 6.33% | +0.01% | -0.52% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 5.75% | 5.86% | +0.01% | -0.85% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 4.71% | 4.88% | -0.03% | -0.82% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.13% | 6.04% | +0.05% | -0.73% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.11% | 5.32% | +0.03% | -0.79% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.32% | 6.44% | +-0% | -0.44% |
Yesterday
We're a little puzzled by this. Only one of yesterday's consumer price index headline figures came in very slightly higher than expected. However, two came in lower and one was as forecast.
Yes, year-over-year core CPI is an important metric. But so are the others.
That's why The Wall Street Journal greeted the report with the headline, "Inflation Extends Cooling Streak to Hit 2.5% in August." And The New York Times wrote, "The Consumer Price Index climbed 2.5 percent in August from a year earlier, a notably cooler pace of inflation than July’s 2.9 percent and down sharply from a peak of 9.1 percent back in 2022."
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
We'll be surprised if mortgage rates today move very far. Of course, any economic report can affect them if it contains sufficiently shocking data.But today's reports rarely have much impact. Both are due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
Let's start with initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep. 7. Normally, investors and the Fed ignore weekly numbers unless they're tracking a trend. But, with so much focus currently on employment, they might respond to today's report.
MarketWatch says markets are currently expecting 225,000 new claims for unemployment benefits, slightly down from the previous week's 227,000. For mortgage rates, the higher the actual number the better.
The producer price index (PPI) for August lands simultaneously. This is the CPI's little brother and he's much less powerful than his big sister. Still, it's an inflation measure so it ain't nothing.
Markets are expecting raw PPI to inch up to 0.2% in August from July's 0.1%. But they anticipate that core PPI will inch down to 0.2%, from 0.3% in July. Always with inflation data, the lower the actual numbers, the better for mortgage rates.
Also today, the European Central Bank (ECB, the eurozone's equivalent of our Fed) is due to announce its latest rates policy. Overnight, Reuters suggested: "The European Central Bank is almost certain to cut interest rates again on Thursday, but with inflation risks simmering despite anemic growth, investors will be combing its message for clues on further easing."
The Fed would say it's unaffected by its peers' actions. But it's bound to notice.
Friday's preliminary consumer sentiment index for September is expected to show an improvement compared to August's: up to 68.4 from 67.9. But those who want lower mortgage rates would prefer it didn't.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
