Mortgage Rates Today, Sep. 10, 2024: Will Tonight's Debate Affect Rates? It Could
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 5.7% today, a decrease of 0.11% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 4.76%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.09%, having dropped by 0.1. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.33%, reflecting a decrease of 0.06%.
In brief
Tonight's debate between presidential candidates might prove a reminder that mortgage rates are affected by more than just economic reports.
But tomorrow's inflation report, the consumer price index, is (short of a knock-out punch this evening) more likely to move mortgage rates appreciably.
We're now eight days off an announcement by the Federal Reserve that's almost certain to reduce general interest rates.
Between now and then, pretty much every important economic report's outcome will be measured by how it could affect the Fed's thinking ahead of its rates decision. Does that report make a larger or smaller cut more likely?
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 5.7% | 5.81% | -0.11% | -0.87% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 4.76% | 4.93% | -0.04% | -0.86% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.09% | 6% | -0.1% | -0.78% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.07% | 5.28% | -0.09% | -0.81% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.09% | 5.28% | -0.07% | -0.69% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.33% | 6.44% | -0.06% | -0.77% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.23% | 6.34% | -0.08% | -0.51% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 5.81% | 5.92% | -0.1% | -0.85% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 4.76% | 4.93% | -0.04% | -0.86% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.1% | 6.01% | -0.1% | -0.77% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.09% | 5.3% | -0.09% | -0.8% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.35% | 6.47% | -0.01% | -0.45% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
It's exceedingly rare for an NFIB small business optimism index to move mortgage rates. So, any movement today will likely be down to investors jockeying for position ahead of tomorrow's crucial consumer price index (CPI).
Of course, this evening's debate between presidential candidates will come too late to affect mortgage rates today. But it could have an impact first thing tomorrow morning.
Whether the debate has any effect at all will depend on whether there's a clear winner. Of course, each side will declare itself the obvious victor regardless of its candidate's performance, as we saw in the last debate with President Joe Biden. But it doesn't typically take long for less partisan observers to work out who really won or to declare a draw.
As we explained yesterday, a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris might help mortgage rates move lower. Former President Donald Trump may be popular on Wall Street, but too many investors fear that his policies on tariffs and the deficit (they doubt his proposed tax cuts will pay for themselves) could prove inflationary. And inflation is bad for mortgage rates.
Tomorrow's consumer price index
Absent a true knock-out punch in tonight's debate, tomorrow's CPI is almost certain to be this week's pivotal event for mortgage rates. Cooling inflation is always good for those rates, but it's especially helpful ahead of next Wednesday's Fed announcement.
The CPI comprises four headline components. Two cover the reporting month (August) and two are year-over-year (YOY) figures (Sep. 1, 2023, to Aug. 31, 2024).
There are two figures for each period. The first is regular CPI, which measures changes in the surveyed prices. The second is called "core CPI" and is the same figure after food and energy prices are stripped out. Economists and the Fed prefer core measures because they exclude the most volatile prices and so reveal the underlying trend.
Here's what MarketWatch says markets are expecting tomorrow:
- August CPI: Markets expecting 0.2%, unchanged since July.
- YOY CPI: Markets expecting 2.6%, down from July's 2.9%
- August core CPI: Markets expecting 0.2%, unchanged since July
- YOY core CPI: Markets expecting 3.2%, unchanged since July
If tomorrow's numbers are precisely as forecast, mortgage rates might barely budge. If they're lower than expected, those rates might fall. But higher-than-expected figures could push them upward.
The rest of this week
Thursday brings initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep. 7. Normally, markets and the Fed ignore weekly numbers unless they're tracking a trend. But, with so much focus currently on employment, they might respond to this week's report.
Meanwhile, Thursday brings the producer price index (PPI) for August, too. This is the CPI's little brother and much less powerful than his big sister. Still, it's an inflation measure so it ain't nothing.
Also on Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB, the eurozone's equivalent of our Fed) is due to announce its latest rates policy, with most expecting a cut. The Fed would say it's unaffected by its peers' actions. But it's bound to notice.
Friday's preliminary consumer sentiment index for September is expected to show an improvement compared to August's. But those who want lower mortgage rates would prefer it didn't.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
