Mortgage Rates Today, Oct. 31, 2024: Is This Halloween Scary for Rates?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 7.01% today, an increase of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.02%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.34%, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.34%, reflecting no change.
In brief
If you participate in Halloween, enjoy yourself! With luck, we might see a calm day for mortgage rates, although that depends on election fever in markets and today's inflation report.
After a month of mostly horrors, mortgage rates grabbed a day of peace yesterday. Is this a turning point?
That's always possible. But we fear it's unlikely. Indeed, we might be in the eye of the hurricane.
We reckon the chances are high of heightened volatility for a week or more, perhaps starting tomorrow. Assuming we're right, this would be mainly driven by speculative trading over the outcome of the presidential election next Tuesday.
Will that be either moderated or exacerbated by the economic data due this week and next? Maybe. But we're not yet clear how those reports are standing up to the Trump trades we've been discussing for some weeks.
So-called Trump trades are market reactions to the possibility of the former president taking the White House. The greater his chances, the higher mortgage rates go.
If only economists had a vote in next week's election, Vice President Kamala Harris would win by a landslide. Earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal published the results of its quarterly survey of leading economists. It reported, "The upshot: Economists still say Trump’s policies are more likely to add to inflation, deficits and interest rates." The margins on many key questions were close to 70% against 30%.
Mortgage rates are largely determined by yields on a type of bond called the mortgage-backed security. And, if there are two things bond investors hate most, it's higher inflation and deficits. That explains the relationship between Trump trades and higher mortgage rates.
But, of course, nobody wants elections to be decided by economists or investors. We all get a say. And, so far, we appear evenly divided.
And, today of all days, that's making many of us scared. AP reports this morning, "Most Americans are feeling a lot of emotions heading into Election Day, but excitement is not one of them. A new poll from The AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that about 7 in 10 Americans report feeling anxious or frustrated about the 2024 presidential campaign ... "
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.01% | 7.05% | +0.06% | +0.87% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.02% | 6.09% | +0% | +0.93% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.34% | 7.17% | +0.02% | +0.84% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.35% | 6.5% | -0.04% | +0.74% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.23% | 6.37% | +0% | +0.72% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.34% | 7.37% | +0% | +0.82% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.86% | 6.89% | +0% | +0.31% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.99% | 7.03% | +0.05% | +0.85% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.87% | 5.93% | -0.01% | +0.95% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.33% | 7.16% | +0.02% | +0.83% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.35% | 6.51% | -0.04% | +0.76% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.88% | 6.92% | +0.05% | +0.45% |
Coming up
This week
Did yesterday's economic reports help mortgage rates remain calm yesterday? It's hard to say.
The first reading of gross domestic product during the third quarter might have helped. It came in a little lower than expected. But the financial media still reported it largely as a win.
Meanwhile, yesterday's ADP private sector employment report came in much hotter than markets were expecting. And that could have balanced things out.
So what are the two remaining potentially important economic reports we're due this week? They are:
- Today — The Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for September
- Tomorrow — The jobs report (aka employment situation report) for October
That last one is typically the single most important economic report each month. So, if any is likely to face down Trump trades, it's the jobs report. We'll publish this daily column late tomorrow, soon after the jobs report is published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern so we can bring you its results.
There are several less important reports due on those days. But we doubt they'll have much effect on mortgage rates.
Strap in for next week, which promises to be exceptionally volatile. Not only might we, if we're very lucky, get a good idea of the likely outcome of the presidential race in the days following Nov. 5. But also the Federal Reserve should unveil its latest cut (if any) to general interest rates next Thursday.
Mortgage rates today
The PCE price index is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. And that gives it special status, though markets always seem to favor the consumer price index (CPI).
But inflation no longer has the importance it had only a few months ago. Wall Street is fairly firmly convinced that the Fed has successfully reined in price rises. So, today's report may only modestly affect mortgage rates unless it brings some shocking numbers.
Price indexes contain four key components. Two measure the month the survey covers. And the other two show year-over-year (YOY) price rises, this time between Oct. 1, 2023 and Sep. 30, 2024.
Each period has a figure for the straight PCE index, which includes all prices in the survey. But it also has one for "core" PCE. And that excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be volatile. The idea is that stripping out volatile prices reveals the underlying trend.
Here's what MarketWatch says markets are expecting from this morning's data:
- September PCE index — 0.2% increase, up from 0.1% in August
- YOY PCE index — 2.1%, down from August's 2.2%
- September core PCE — 0.3% increase, up from August's 0.1%
- YOY core PCE — 2.6% increase, down from August's 2.7%
Those wanting lower mortgage rates need lower-than-expected figures today.
It's also worth mentioning that month ends can have unexpected consequences for mortgage rates. This is just investors cleaning up their trading positions and doesn't reflect changing sentiment. But it does sometimes have an impact.
Tomorrow
Normally, we'd be saying that tomorrow's jobs report is likely to be the month's most consequential event for mortgage rates. But Trump trades have already stolen that crown.
And we aren't at all sure how the report will hold up if there's a sudden surge in Trump trades later in the day. Will it swamp the trades or will the trades swamp it?
Anyway, here's what markets are currently expecting from the October jobs report, according to MarketWatch:
- Nonfarm payrolls (new jobs created in October) — 110,000, sharply down from September's 254,000
- Unemployment rate — 4.1%, unchanged from September
- Hourly wages — Up 0.3%, a slightly slower increase than September's 0.4%
October should have been a bad month for jobs, with hurricane disruption and strikes.
But the specialist analysts whose forecasts are the basis for market expectations for jobs reports have a pretty dire record for accuracy. And yesterday's ADP employment report suggests they may be too pessimistic this time, too.
That may be bad for mortgage rates because we want worse-than-expected figures for those to fall. For non-farm payrolls and hourly wages, that means lower numbers. But, for the unemployment rate, it's the higher the better.
There are a few other reports due tomorrow. But we'd normally expect them to be fully eclipsed by the jobs report.
