Mortgage Rates Today, Oct. 29, 2024: Horrible Period Continues
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.99% today, an increase of 0.09% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.08%, up by 0.16%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.34%, having risen by 0.08. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.35%, reflecting an increase of 0.1%.
In brief
It's been a ghastly October for mortgage rates. According to Mortgage News Daily's (MND's) archive, those for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages kicked off the month at 6.2%.
Mortgage rates today start this morning at 7%, says MND. And that's a very significant increase.
Things could have been worse. In its Review & Preview e-newsletter yesterday afternoon, Barron's said, "Bond yields rose yet again, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield up 0.05 percentage point today, to 4.23%. That's its highest yield since July, and up from around 3.6% in mid September.
"The increase in yields came despite the U.S. Treasury saying today [Monday] that it expects to borrow slightly less in the current quarter than it last forecasted in July: $546 billion in net borrowing, down from $565 billion previously."
Why does that matter to mortgage rates? Because those are largely determined by trades of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) in a bond market that's metaphorically immediately adjacent to the Treasury ones.
Usually, when Treasury yields rise, MBS yields do, too. And higher MBS yields mean higher mortgage rates. That's what happened yesterday.
The more we look, the more we struggle to find a convincing explanation for recent rises besides Trump trades. The more likely it seems that former President Trump will win the White House, the higher mortgage rates go.
This could end on election day next Tuesday if a clear result is declared that night. But that seems unlikely. Indeed, some political commentators wonder if we'll know the certain winner this year.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.99% | 7.03% | +0.09% | +0.83% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.08% | 6.14% | +0.16% | +0.94% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.34% | 7.17% | +0.08% | +0.8% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.4% | 6.56% | +0.15% | +0.92% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.23% | 6.38% | +0.03% | +0.69% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.35% | 7.37% | +0.1% | +0.68% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.86% | 6.89% | +0.03% | +0.38% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.98% | 7.02% | +0.11% | +0.83% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.92% | 5.99% | +0.15% | +0.91% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.34% | 7.17% | +0.08% | +0.79% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.41% | 6.57% | +0.16% | +0.93% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.85% | 6.89% | +0.05% | +0.45% |
Coming up
This week
Markets are currently focused on employment data. At least, they are when they're not fretting about the presidential election.
And this week brings a plethora of employment-related reports, starting today and culminating in Friday's official jobs report, aka the employment situation report.
Unusually, jobs week also brings a couple of other heavyweight reports. Tomorrow, we're due the first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) during the third quarter of this year (Q3/24).
And Thursday's calendar features the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. Only a few months ago, markets were obsessed with inflation data. Now, such numbers are much less important as investors assume price rises have been pretty much reined in.
We'll brief you more fully on each major report the day before it's due.
Strap in for next week, which promises to be exceptionally volatile. Not only might we, if we're very lucky, get a good idea of the likely outcome of the presidential race in the days following Nov. 5, but next Thursday the Federal Reserve should also unveil its latest cut (if any) to general interest rates.
Mortgage rates today
Three economic reports are due this morning. But the S&P Case-Shiller home price index rarely touches mortgage rates.
The other two are also unlikely to have much effect on those rates. But they might nudge them a bit either way. So, here's what markets are expecting from them, according to MarketWatch:
- September job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) — Markets expect the number of job openings that month to be unchanged from the 8 million seen in August
- October consumer confidence — Markets expect an improvement to 99.5 from 98.7 in September
Note that MarketWatch updated those expectations over the last 24 hours, so they've changed since we reported them yesterday.
Market expectations are key here. If today's actual numbers are higher than expected, mortgage rates might rise. If they're lower, those rates might fall.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow morning's calendar contains six economic reports but only two of them are likely to affect mortgage rates perceptably. Those are:
- Gross domestic product during the third quarter — Markets expect this first reading (of three) to show Q3/24 GDP rising by 3.1%, up from 3.0% in Q2/24
- October ADP employment survey — Markets expect 113,000 new jobs to have been created that month, down from 143,000 in September
The same rules of thumb apply today as yesterday. Typically, lower-than-expected numbers drag mortgage rates lower. But Trump trades could ... er, trump economic reports tomorrow and for some time to come.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
