Mortgage Rates Today, Oct. 22, 2024: Yesterday's Sharp Rise a Mystery
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.8% today, an increase of 0.09% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.85%, up by 0.11%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.15%, having risen by 0.15. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.13%, reflecting an increase of 0.05%.
In brief
What triggered yesterday's unexpected increase in mortgage rates? Obviously, we'd like to claim it was down to the Trump trade, which we wrote about yesterday. That would make us look clever and freakishly prescient.
And the Trump trade probably did play a part. The former president's campaign is going well, and his chances of winning the Nov. 5 election are close to 50-50.
MarketWatch seemed to think that a variation on the Trump trade played a part yesterday. It suggested yesterday's rise in bond yields (and so mortgage rates) was "spurred in part by growing concern about the path of the U.S. deficit regardless of which candidate wins the race for the White House."
Many economists indeed anticipate higher federal deficits whoever wins the presidential race. However, most seem to think former President Donald Trump's policies pose a greater threat to these.
And these fears about both main candidates have been around for months. So why would markets suddenly choose to pay attention yesterday if it weren't for a recent boost to Mr. Trump's poll numbers?
Still, even MarketWatch only ascribes a part of yesterday's rise to deficit fears. Mortgage News Daily suggests some other possible contributory factors: "These include things like shifting election odds coupled with assumptions about policy impacts, arcane calendar issues surrounding the options market, and one of several research notes regarding U.S. deficits that have been making the rounds."
We'll let you know if we hear a better explanation.
The good news is that movements in U.S. Treasury bonds calmed overnight in international trading. If that continues when Wall Street wakes up, mortgage rates today may be more stable than they were yesterday.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.8% | 6.84% | +0.09% | +0.71% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.85% | 5.91% | +0.11% | +0.77% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.15% | 6.98% | +0.15% | +0.73% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.14% | 6.3% | +0.08% | +0.73% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.19% | 6.33% | +0.11% | +0.74% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.13% | 7.15% | +0.05% | +0.53% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.73% | 6.77% | +0.08% | +0.17% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.78% | 6.82% | +0.09% | +0.68% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.69% | 5.76% | +0.12% | +0.75% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.14% | 6.97% | +0.15% | +0.74% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.15% | 6.3% | +0.08% | +0.74% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.74% | 6.81% | +0.1% | +0.29% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
Yesterday's economic report almost certainly had no noticeable effect on mortgage rates. September's leading economic indicators came in worse than markets were expecting. And that would normally exert some weak downward pressure on those rates.
Today, we have no economic reports on the calendar. And tomorrow brings only one.
That's for existing home sales in September. But these figures rarely affect mortgage rates.
Still, for the record, markets are expecting them to inch lower to 3.84 million that month from 3.86 million in August. They'd have to be much lower than 3.84 million to pull mortgage rates noticeably lower.
Thursday and Friday
On Thursday, we're due two October "flash" (preliminary) purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) from S&P Global. There's one for the services sector and another for manufacturing. These reports are likely to be the most consequential for mortgage rates this week. But they still usually have only a limited and temporary effect.
Thursday's calendar brings a couple more economic reports. September new home sales rarely make much difference to mortgage rates. But, with employment currently in the spotlight, it's possible that initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 19 might move them a little bit.
We'll brief you more fully on Thursday's reports tomorrow.
Senior Federal Reserve officials will speak in public on Wednesday and Thursday. And markets will be listening in the hope of gleaning how the Fed's attitude to future cuts to general interest rates is evolving.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
