Mortgage Rates Today, Oct. 21, 2024: Might the Trump Trade Return?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.71% today, an increase of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.73%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.01%, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.08%, reflecting a decrease of 0.1%.
In brief
It looks set to be a slow week for economic reports. There are two or three (details below) that sometimes affect mortgage rates a bit. But even those rarely make much difference.
However, that doesn't necessarily mean mortgage rates today and for the rest of the week will be fairly stable. Because it's possible we'll see a return of the "Trump trade."
Months ago, the Trump trade was all about former President Donald Trump's stated policies on taxation, tariffs and immigration. Investors feared the first might blow up the deficit and the last two could reignite inflation.
Now, the trade is more nuanced, with investors recognizing some benefits, especially in industries such as cryptocurrencies and oil drilling.
The Trump trade waxes and wanes with the candidate's chances of electoral success. And, yesterday, a Wall Street Journal headline declared, "Trump Erases Harris’s Lead."
So, we may be due a Trump trade comeback. On the whole, this isn't good for mortgage rates.
Bond investors (including those who buy and sell mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), which largely determine mortgage rates) fear higher inflation and deficits. And the money that goes into crypto and oil company stocks can't be spent on MBSs.
So, mortgage rates tend to rise when the Trump trade is in play. Will it push them higher this week? We'll have to wait and see.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.71% | 6.75% | +0.08% | +0.62% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.73% | 5.8% | +0.04% | +0.66% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.01% | 6.85% | +0.03% | +0.59% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.07% | 6.22% | -0.04% | +0.66% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.08% | 6.23% | +0.1% | +0.63% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.08% | 7.1% | -0.1% | +0.48% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.66% | 6.7% | -0.01% | +0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.69% | 6.73% | +0.09% | +0.58% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.58% | 5.64% | +0.05% | +0.63% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6% | 6.84% | +0.04% | +0.6% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.07% | 6.23% | -0.04% | +0.66% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.64% | 6.71% | -0.08% | +0.18% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today and this week
The week starts slowly for economic reports. The calendar for the first three days shows:
- Monday — September leading economic indicators
- Tuesday — Nothing
- Wednesday — September existing home sales
We'll be surprised if these have any noticeable impact on mortgage rates. Things get more exciting on Thursday. But only a bit more.
That day, we're due two October "flash" (preliminary) purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) from S&P Global. There's one for the services sector and another for manufacturing. If any, these tend to have only a limited and temporary effect on mortgage rates.
Thursday's calendar brings a couple more economic reports. September new home sales rarely make much difference to mortgage rates. But, with employment currently in the spotlight, it's possible that initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 19 might move them a little bit.
We'll brief you more fully on Thursday's reports on Wednesday.
Senior Federal Reserve officials will speak in public today and on Wednesday and Thursday. And markets will be listening in the hope of gleaning how the Fed's attitude to future cuts to general interest rates is evolving.
We're not expecting any sharp movements in mortgage rates this week based on any of the above. If those rates climb or tumble far, it will likely be down to the Trump trade or some other off-calendar event.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
