Mortgage Rates Today, Oct. 17, 2024: Stand by for retail sales data
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.6% today, an increase of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.69%, up by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.91%, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.21%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
In brief
With consumer spending making up roughly 68% of America's gross domestic product (GDP), this morning's retail sales figures have the potential to influence mortgage rates today.
Whether or not they do will depend on the extent to which this morning's actual figures, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, deviate from market expectations. The better these September numbers are for the economy, the higher mortgage rates might go. (Read the details, below.)
If you want lower mortgage rates, you need to get used to the uncomfortable feeling of hoping the economy does badly. There's a strong correlation between a struggling economy and low mortgage rates.
Unfortunately, news today from The Wall Street Journal today suggests economists are expecting the economy to improve. Each quarter, the Journal polls 66 leading business and academic economists about their predictions for the future.
Across key measures, their forecasts are upbeat. True, they're expecting a slight cooling in the labor market. But they don't think unemployment will rise dramatically. And their predictions for GDP and inflation are positive.
So far, they still think short-term general interest rates will decline. But, if their other forecasts are correct, we'll likely see only modestly lower mortgage rates in 2025.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.6% | 6.64% | +0.08% | +1.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.69% | 5.75% | +0.05% | +1.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.91% | 6.74% | +0.03% | +0.94% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.01% | 6.16% | +0% | +1% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.76% | 5.89% | +0% | +0.8% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.21% | 7.23% | -0.01% | +1.04% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.66% | 6.69% | +-0% | +0.46% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.59% | 6.62% | +0.08% | +0.91% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.5% | 5.56% | +0.05% | +0.91% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.89% | 6.73% | +0.03% | +0.93% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.02% | 6.17% | +0% | +1% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.71% | 6.78% | -0.01% | +0.42% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
If mortgage rates are going to move noticeably this week, today's the day they're most likely to do so. Retail sales data have certainly affected them in the past.
As we explained yesterday, you need to look out for the gap between what markets are expecting and the report's actual figures. You can look up this morning's numbers anytime after 8:30 a.m. Eastern on the Census Bureau's website.
And market expectations, according to MarketWatch, are for retail sales to have increased by 0.3% in September, up from August's 0.1%. However, when sales of autos are excluded, that's expected to be a 0.1% rise, the same as in August.
Remember, it's the gap between expectations and actual data that moves mortgage rates.
Also this morning, we're due September's industrial production report. That's expected to show a 0.2% contraction compared to 0.8% growth in August. Comerica Bank suggests such a fall would be because "utilities production and mining output eased." However, these figures tend to have only a small impact on mortgage rates.
And there are a few other, lesser reports scheduled for today. Among those, the one that might affect mortgage rates shows new claims for unemployment benefits during the week ending Oct. 12. But they're expected to barely budge from the previous week.
Tomorrow
It seems reasonable to think that housing market data would influence mortgage rates. But, in reality, they rarely do.
So, we'll be surprised if tomorrow's housing starts and building permits reports have much effect on those rates.
