Mortgage Rates Today, Oct. 16, 2024: Another Quiet Day for Rates Looks Likely

In brief

Chances are, mortgage rates today will remain calm. MarketWatch lists the import price index (IPI) as the sole economic report on the calendar. And you can tell how inconsequential that's likely to be by Comerica Bank's similar listing. It says, "No market-moving economic releases" today.

Of course, as we warned yesterday, there are no guarantees. While economic reports typically generate the biggest movements in mortgage rates, any news that affects markets or the economy can have an impact.

Meanwhile, tomorrow should bring two or three economic reports that might move those rates. In particular, retail sales data sometimes have an appreciable effect.

Still, we have a good chance of this week ending with mortgage rates close to where they were last Friday. And, as Mortgage News Daily remarked after markets closed yesterday, "Anything other than 'higher' is a victory recently."

Coming up

Mortgage rates today and tomorrow

So, it would take some unexpected economic news for mortgage rates today to move far. But things might change tomorrow.

Why mortgage rates move

Changes in mortgage rates tend to occur only when markets are blindsided by unexpected data. Investors typically trade ahead of reports' publications based on what we often call "market expectations."

Technically, these trades are based on "analysts' consensus forecasts." Analysts are economists who specialize in particular sectors of the economy. They each predict the outcome of a forthcoming report, and their output is compiled and averaged to create a consensus forecast. It saves us from having to explain that each time if we simply refer to market expectations.

Because investors trade ahead of reports based on market expectations, markets and mortgage rates tend to change only when there's a gap between what's expected and what's delivered. The bigger the gap, the bigger the movement.

And news that's good for the economy usually pushes mortgage rates higher while worse-than-expected figures typically pull them lower.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow's (and this week's) most consequential report is likely to be retail sales data for September. As we said yesterday, consumer spending accounts for roughly 68% of America's gross domestic product. So, tomorrow's figures are potentially much more influential than most, beaten only by employment and inflation numbers.

MarketWatch says the analysts' consensus forecast is for retail sales to have improved by 0.3% that month, up from August's 0.1%. However, when sales of autos are excluded, that's expected to be a 0.1% rise, the same as in August. Remember, it's the gap between expectations and actual data that moves mortgage rates.

Also tomorrow, we're due September industrial production. That's expected to show a 0.2% contraction compared to 0.8% growth in August. Comerica Bank suggests such a fall would be because "utilities production and mining output eased."

And there are a few other, lesser reports scheduled for tomorrow. Among those, the one that might affect mortgage rates shows new claims for unemployment benefits during the week ending Oct. 12. But they're expected to barely budge from the previous week.