Mortgage Rates Today, Oct. 8, 2024: Rates Still Rising As Markets Respond to Stronger-Than-Expected Economy
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.59% yesterday, an increase of 0.18% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.59%, up by 0.2%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.81% yesterday, having risen by 0.09. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.72%, reflecting an increase of 0.08%.
In brief
Last Friday, The New York Times summed up the new reality. "Fresh employment data for September showed that hiring picked up strongly, the unemployment rate dipped and wage growth came in strong — adding to a string of recent data pointing to economic resilience," it said. "And the incoming evidence points to a clear conclusion: The economy is robust."
Regular readers will know that's bad news for mortgage rates. They tend to fall when the economy struggles and climb when it thrives.
Some of that is down to the Federal Reserve. It risks reigniting inflation if it keeps cutting general interest rates during the good times. And its stated reason for its last cut on Sep. 18 was concern about the economy's apparent fragility, most especially weak employment data.
So, what might it do to general interest rates when it next meets on Nov. 6-7? Most still expect a small cut then. But will it keep on cutting after that?
Also last Friday, The Wall Street Journal explained how the economy and Fed influence mortgage rates: "Trading in Treasurys and mortgage bonds often reflects what investors think the Fed might do with rates over the coming months and years. And that, in turn, is heavily dependent on expectations for the economy’s performance." Mortgage rates are closely tied to the yields on mortgage bonds, aka mortgage-backed securities.
All this must mean that sunny forecasts of gently falling mortgage rates over the next 15 months must now be put on hold. That might still happen as the economic environment evolves. But it's no longer so obviously the most likely scenario.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.59% | 6.64% | +0.18% | +0.79% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.59% | 5.65% | +0.2% | +0.77% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.81% | 6.65% | +0.09% | +0.62% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.77% | 5.92% | +0.16% | +0.58% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.93% | 6.07% | +0.25% | +0.77% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.72% | 6.75% | +0.08% | +0.32% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.52% | 6.58% | -0.17% | +0.21% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.53% | 6.57% | +0.17% | +0.64% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.41% | 5.48% | +0.22% | +0.59% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.8% | 6.64% | +0.09% | +0.59% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.77% | 5.92% | +0.15% | +0.57% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.65% | 6.72% | +0.06% | +0.29% |
Coming up
Nothing's changed since yesterday as far as this week's economic reports are concerned. So, for new readers, the following is a lightly edited version of yesterday's "Coming up" section.
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
With mortgage rates already contending with the aftermath of Friday's jobs report, continuing tensions in the Middle East, and a looming CPI, they don't need more distractions.
And they probably won't get any from the economic reports scheduled for today and tomorrow. Three are on the calendar but they're all ones that rarely affect mortgage rates in a noticeable way. They are:
- Today — September small business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business. Plus the trade deficit for August
- Tomorrow — Wholesale inventories in August
Wednesday also brings publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee. These sometimes provide additional helpful insights into the Fed's thinking. But so much of great importance has happened since the meeting that the minutes will likely be woefully outdated.
Instead, markets may look for such insights from the speeches of senior Fed officials. Four such speeches are scheduled for today and seven for tomorrow.
Mortgage rates might move in response to the officials' remarks today, though we doubt they'll generate big changes.
Fed speeches might have a bigger impact later in the week when more speakers have added their opinions, helping investors to identify a consensus.
Thursday and Friday
There are more Fed speeches due on Thursday and Friday. But those days are all about inflation, with Thursday's consumer price index (CPI) for September by far the most potentially influential report this week. MarketWatch says markets are expecting three of the four headline figures to show consumer price rises continuing to slow a little with the fourth holding steady.
Normally, that would be great, although mortgage rates tend to fall when price rises slow even more than markets are expecting.
Our only concern is if events in the Middle East get worse before the report lands. If, by Thursday morning, oil prices are much above $80 a barrel, investors might view the CPI as already out of date because future higher prices will effectively be inevitable.
The same applies to Friday's report, the September producer price index (PPI). That's the CPI's much less important sibling. PPIs measure price changes earlier in the supply chain than retailer's shelves so often predict future CPI movements.
We'll brief you more fully on the CPI and PPI before they land.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
