Mortgage Rates Today, Oct. 3, 2024: Rate Volatility Possible Tomorrow
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.28% today, an increase of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.24%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.59%, having risen by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.61%, reflecting no change.
In brief
By now, regular readers must be bored with our endless flagging of tomorrow's jobs report. Sorry, but potentially it really is that consequential for mortgage rates.
Indeed, it could easily turn out to be October's most important economic report.
Some believe that ADP employment reports can indicate how the official jobs report will turn out. Let's hope they're wrong.
Yesterday's ADP report pushed mortgage rates higher because it showed 143,000 new jobs created in September when markets had been expecting 128,000. If markets are similarly underestimating tomorrow's jobs report, that could be very bad for those rates.
To be fair, markets were also worried yesterday about the possibility of a resurgence in inflation. Tensions in the Middle East have sent oil prices sharply higher. And that could propel a range of consumer prices higher besides just gas.
Having said that, overnight The Financial Times ran the headline, "The market reaction to global tensions might not follow the old script." And the FT pointed to the dollar. Its value would normally surge with geopolitical tensions so high. But it's showing "only a modest pick-up."
Today's reports might affect mortgage rates a bit. But their data would have to be shocking to move them far.
We'll publish our daily report later than usual tomorrow so we can bring you the key data.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.28% | 6.32% | +0.06% | -0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.24% | 5.3% | +0.01% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.59% | 6.43% | +0.06% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.55% | 5.69% | -0.03% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.56% | 5.7% | +0.01% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.61% | 6.64% | +-0% | -0.24% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.61% | 6.67% | +0.02% | -0.2% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.26% | 6.29% | +0.06% | -0.2% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.08% | 5.14% | +0.02% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.58% | 6.42% | +0.06% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.54% | 5.69% | -0.03% | -0.2% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.52% | 6.56% | +0.04% | -0.38% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
Four economic reports are on this morning's calendar:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep. 28 — Markets expect those to just inch higher
- Two September purchasing managers' indexes for the services sector — Markets expect those to be unchanged
- August factory orders — Markets expect those to tumble to 0.0% growth from 5.0% in July
Expect these to affect mortgage rates only if they're materially different from market expectations. Otherwise, they may have very little effect.
And any effect they do have will likely be short-lived. Tomorrow's jobs report might easily swamp their impact.
Friday
It's impossible to overstate the potential importance of that jobs report, aka the employment situation report, for September. Markets and the Fed are now closely focused on the labor market, and this report is by far the most influential gauge of that.
Here, according to MarketWatch, is what markets are expecting from the three headline elements of tomorrow's report:
- Nonfarm payrolls (new jobs created in September) — 150,000, up from 142,000 in August
- Unemployment rate — 4.2%, unchanged since August
- Hourly wages — Up by 0.3%, down from the 0.4% increase in August
Of course, if tomorrow's figures are exactly what markets are expecting, the report could be a damp squib. But, if they're not, we could be looking at fireworks that put July 4 in the shade.
And, frankly, we're worried. The analysts who create market expectations have a pretty terrible record when it comes to employment data.
If they're proved wrong tomorrow, and many more new jobs have been created than they've forecast, mortgage rates could skyrocket. [That's enough fireworks metaphors — Ed.]
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
