Mortgage Rates Today, Oct. 2, 2024: Countdown to Friday's Jobs Report Continues
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.22% today, an increase of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.23%, up by 0.15%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.53%, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.61%, reflecting an increase of 0.08%.
In brief
Mortgage rates fell yesterday, neatly canceling out Monday's rise, according to Mortgage News Daily.
However, that probably had little to do with Tuesday's economic reports. Some were a bit better than expected and others a bit worse. And together they were unlikely to make much difference.
What did spook markets was the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Amid such uncertainty, investors often escape risky stock markets to the relative haven of safer bonds. That extra demand pushes up bond prices, which inevitably drags bond yields lower.
And, of course, mortgage rates are largely determined by yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security.
An aggressive and immediate response by Israel to Iran's attack might cause mortgage rates to fall further. But the timing of such a response is as yet unclear. As a Barron's headline put it yesterday evening, "Iran Attacks Israel. The Israeli Response Will Drive the Market."
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.22% | 6.26% | +0.08% | -0.13% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.23% | 5.3% | +0.15% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.53% | 6.37% | +0.03% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.58% | 5.72% | -0.03% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.56% | 5.69% | +0.05% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.61% | 6.64% | +0.08% | -0.24% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.59% | 6.65% | +0.05% | -0.23% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.2% | 6.23% | +0.06% | -0.26% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.06% | 5.12% | +0.15% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.52% | 6.36% | +0.02% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.57% | 5.72% | -0.02% | -0.14% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.48% | 6.53% | +0.05% | -0.41% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
Once again, four senior Federal Reserve officials have speaking engagements tomorrow, three of them as a panel at the same event. And we're due speeches from one more on each of Thursday and Friday.
Tomorrow
Four economic reports are on tomorrow's calendar:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep. 28 — Markets expect those to just inch higher
- Two September purchasing managers' indexes for the services sector — Markets expect those to be unchanged
- August factory orders — Markets expect those to tumble to 0.0% growth from 5.0% in July
Expect these to affect mortgage rates only if they're materially different from market expectations. Otherwise, they may have very little effect.
And any effect they do have will likely be short-lived. The following day's jobs report might easily swamp their impact.
Friday
It's impossible to overstate the potential importance of Friday's jobs report, aka the employment situation report, for September. Markets and the Fed are both closely focused on the labor market, and this report is by far the most influential gauge of that.
Of course, if Friday's figures are exactly what markets are expecting, the report could be a damp squib. But, if they're not, we could be looking at fireworks that put July 4 in the shade.
All week, we've been saying that if mortgage rates are this time next week significantly different from where they stand this morning, the jobs report will very likely have caused the change.
We'll brief you more fully on what's expected from the jobs report tomorrow.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
