Mortgage Rates Today, Nov. 27, 2024: Will Today's Economic Data Affect Rates?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.75% today, a decrease of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.83%, down by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6%, having dropped by 0.08. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.22%, reflecting a decrease of 0.07%.
In brief
Economic data were mixed yesterday with some reports better and others worse than expected. Meanwhile, markets adjusted to President-elect Donald Trump's tariff talk, with many hoping it might be his opening gambit in a longer negotiation.
Similarly, the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee were sufficiently vague to keep investors onside. CNBC summed them up: "Federal Reserve officials expressed confidence that inflation is easing and the labor market is strong, allowing for further interest rate cuts albeit at a gradual pace, according to minutes from the November meeting released Tuesday."
Many of yesterday's activities exerted conflicting influence on mortgage rates, and they ended up barely moving. Might we see the same again today?
Quite possibly. But today's economic reports are typically more influential than most. And if one of them brings shocking data, volatility could return. Read on for details.
Meanwhile, some of Wall Street's more experienced, cooler heads will today be traveling for the Thanksgiving holiday. (Enjoy yours!) And their absence could generate extra volatility if those still in the office today and Friday get carried away.
Also, we're approaching the end of the month. And that's a period when investors often trade in order to tidy up their portfolios. Those taking an extended break might begin doing so today.
Any of these things might generate volatility today. And we shouldn't be surprised if it does. But there's a roughly equal chance that it won't.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.75% | 6.79% | -0.06% | -0.15% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.83% | 5.89% | -0.05% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6% | 6.83% | -0.08% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.03% | 6.19% | -0.04% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6% | 6.14% | +0.05% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.22% | 7.24% | -0.07% | -0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.67% | 6.7% | +0.02% | -0.16% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.74% | 6.78% | -0.04% | -0.13% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.67% | 5.73% | -0.05% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.97% | 6.8% | -0.08% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.04% | 6.19% | -0.04% | -0.22% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.65% | 6.71% | -0.05% | -0.16% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
There's a whole pile of economic reports crammed into today. But most of them rarely affect mortgage rates unless they contain truly shocking data. Still, two do routinely influence those rates.
Inflation
And the more important is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for October. This is the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation, and could easily affect its next rate-setting decision on Dec. 18.
Price indexes comprise four main components. Two measure price changes during the reporting month (October) and two are year-over-year (YOY) figures (Nov. 1, 2023,-Oct. 31, 2024).
Why are there two figures for each of the monthly and YOY periods? Because the first is the standard index, measuring all prices in the survey. And the second reads "core" inflation, which is the standard index after food and energy prices have been stripped out. Economists like core inflation because food and energy prices are especially volatile and excluding them reveals the underlying trend.
Here's what markets are expecting from today's price index, according to MarketWatch:
- October PCE index — Markets expecting 0.2%, unchanged since September
- October PCE core index — Markets expecting 0.3%, unchanged since September
- YOY PCE index — Markets expecting 2.3%, up very slightly from September's 2.1%
- YOY core PCE index — Markets expecting 2.8%, up very slightly from September's 2.7%
Mortgage rates are most likely to fall if the report contains lower-than-expected numbers. Higher-than-expected ones might push those rates higher. And on-forecast figures could leave them unchanged.
Gross domestic product and others
This morning's other important report concerns gross domestic product (GDP) during the third quarter of this year. We've already had the first of three readings and markets are expecting no change (at 2.8%) for this second one. Again, we'd like to see a lower-than-expected number.
Other reports today fall into the rarely-affect-mortgage-rates category. They include weekly new claims for unemployment benefits, durable goods orders, advanced trade balance in goods ... you get the picture. For a full list, click that last link to MarketWatch.
Later in the week
