Mortgage Rates Today, Nov. 26, 2024: Rates Volatile as Post-Election Policies and Picks Emerge
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.81% today, an increase of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.87%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.07%, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.29%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
In brief
Yesterday, we listed four things that might drive volatility in mortgage rates this week. We should have mentioned a fifth: Trump trades.
For a while, Trump trades were based on the likelihood of the former president winning the Nov. 5 election. Now that he is President-elect Donald Trump, these trades are responses to his unveiling of plans that might affect the economy.
So, yesterday, mortgage rates fell because Trump tapped billionaire financier Scott Bessent as his treasury secretary. Markets liked the appointment, and mortgage rates tumbled.
But, yesterday evening, Trump announced that he would impose tariffs on all imports from Canada, Mexico and China. The Wall Street Journal reported:
"Posting on his Truth Social platform, Trump said that on the first day of his presidency he will charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on all products coming into the U.S. He added in a separate social-media post that he would impose an additional 10% tariff on all products that come
into the U.S. from China, though he didn’t specify whether that levy would come on his first day in office. Such a tariff would come on top of existing tariffs the U.S. has already imposed on Chinese goods."
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.81% | 6.85% | +0.02% | -0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.87% | 5.94% | +0% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.07% | 6.91% | +0.05% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.07% | 6.23% | -0.02% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.95% | 6.09% | -0.06% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.29% | 7.31% | -0.01% | +0.1% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.65% | 6.68% | -0.09% | +0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.78% | 6.81% | +0.01% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.72% | 5.78% | -0.01% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.05% | 6.88% | +0.06% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.07% | 6.22% | +-0% | -0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.7% | 6.76% | -0.1% | -0.05% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
Trump's tariff announcement might easily overwhelm today's three economic reports. But there's a chance that another event this afternoon could overtake even the president-elect's policy revelation.
That event is the publication by the Federal Reserve of some minutes. These record what was said at the last (Nov. 7) meeting of the Fed's rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC.
By then, FOMC members were aware of Trump's electoral victory. And markets will be eager to learn of their initial response: How they think the president-elect's policies might affect general interest rates.
At the moment, investors are split roughly 60-40 over whether the Fed will again cut general interest rates on Dec. 18. That could change this afternoon, depending on what the minutes say — and so could mortgage rates.
Today brings three economic reports:
- S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) for September
- October new home sales
- November consumer confidence — Markets are expecting that to rise to 111.0 (changed since yesterday) from 108.7 in October
Markets rarely respond much to real-estate data, so consumer confidence figures are most likely to affect mortgage rates. We'd like an appreciably lower figure than 111.0 because that's more likely to exert some downward pressure on mortgage rates.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow brings a mini-avalanche of economic reports. But two in particular stand out as likely to move mortgage rates.
The more important is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. This is the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation, and could easily affect its rate-setting decision on Dec. 18. Markets are expecting October's figures to remain the same as September's. But they think the year-over-year (Nov. 1, 2023, to Oct. 31, 2024) numbers will creep a little higher.
For mortgage rates to fall tomorrow, we'd like to see better (smaller) numbers than markets are expecting.
Tomorrow's other important report concerns gross domestic product (GDP) during the third quarter of this year. We've already had the first of three readings and markets are expecting no change (at 2.8%) for this second one. Again, we'd like to see a lower-than-expected number.
Later in the week
