Mortgage Rates Today, Nov. 19, 2024: Lots of Uncertainty But Little Movement

In brief

Ever since the Nov. 5 general election, we've been discussing what the result might mean for mortgage rates. It's been necessary because how markets perceive the likely economic impacts of a Trump presidency can drive those rates up and down, sometimes sharply.

Now, finally, we can tell you that ... nothing has changed. Well, maybe one thing: Markets look to be growing used to the uncertainty.

Optimistic and pessimistic prognoses still fill the financial media. For example, yesterday evening, Barron's Review & Preview e-newsletter quoted Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research. "Despite a pick-up in volatility, we remain bullish and believe last week’s weakness into overbought conditions will prove to be short-lived," he wrote. And Barron's went on to quote more optimists.

But yesterday's New York Times took a less rosy view when it explored "How Trump's Plans Affect the Economy." It suggested that President-elect Donald Trump " ... has proposed or hinted at a range of policies — including drastically higher tariffs, mass deportations, deregulation and a fraught relationship with the Federal Reserve as it sets interest rates —that could shape the economy in complex ways." It fretted about the possible high inflation and constricted productivity those could ultimately bring.

It may be that the optimists and pessimists are looking at different timeframes. In the short term, Trump policies may well be great for business and stock markets because they could boost productivity. But later, if he pursues mass deportations, unfunded tax cuts and much higher tariffs, that could reignite inflation, forcing higher interest rates, including mortgage rates.

To quote yet again (and for the last time) the view last Friday of the editor-in-chief of The Economist, "Soon the hyperbole of campaign pledges will come into contact with the messy reality of governing. Then we will begin to understand the real impact of Trumponomics."

Anyway, mortgage rates moved only modestly yesterday, which may mean investors are coming to terms with the current uncertainty. Or they may be deer in the headlights, frozen before they leap one way or the other to get out of danger. We'll see.

Coming up

Mortgage rates today and this week

There are two reports on this morning's calendar, October housing starts and building permits. These rarely have a perceptible effect on mortgage rates.

Wednesday brings no reports. And Thursday's are more likely to produce ripples than waves. Friday may prove more interesting, but likely only a bit more.

We'll brief you in more detail on those reports due later in the week closer to the time.

Senior Federal Reserve officials share seven more speaking engagements this week, with at least one every day. With markets now wondering whether the Fed will cut general interest rates on Dec. 18, their words might carry more weight than usual.