Mortgage Rates Today, Nov. 15, 2024: Fed Hints Future Rate Cuts Now Uncertain
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.98% today, an increase of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.03%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.19%, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.36%, reflecting no change.
In brief
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell yesterday put in doubt some of the cuts the central bank had penciled in for future general interest rates. Powell acknowledged that the next administration's policies might fuel inflation but said he didn't currently have enough information to draw conclusions. "So I just think we reserve judgment until we know what we're talking about," he said.
Overnight, The Economist's editor-in-chief echoed Powell's thoughts in her weekly e-newsletter. Pondering the likely impact of President-elect Donald Trump's plans on the economy, she suggested: "The conclusion markets seem to be drawing is that things will work out just fine. And indeed Mr Trump’s commitment to deregulation may be good for growth. But the same can’t be said of his plan to deport millions of irregular migrants and impose sweeping tariffs, especially on China. Soon the hyperbole of campaign pledges will come into contact with the messy reality of governing. Then we will begin to understand the real impact of Trumponomics."
Some markets responded quickly to Powell's comments. But mortgage rates barely moved. Still, we may see some delayed reaction this morning.
Today's retail sales data could well affect mortgage rates. Whether they do — and the direction they will take — will depend on what the figures say. More below.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.98% | 7.02% | +0.06% | +0.45% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.03% | 6.1% | +0.04% | +0.39% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.19% | 7.02% | +0.02% | +0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.18% | 6.33% | +0.03% | +0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.19% | 6.34% | +0.02% | +0.44% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.36% | 7.39% | +-0% | +0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.77% | 6.81% | +0.08% | +0.11% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.95% | 6.99% | +0.03% | +0.43% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.85% | 5.91% | +0.01% | +0.39% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.17% | 7% | +0.01% | +0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.18% | 6.34% | +0.03% | +0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.8% | 6.84% | +0.08% | +0.08% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
This morning's retail sales figures for October could easily be this week's most important report. They're expected to grow by 0.3% that month, which is a hint slower than September's 0.4%. Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of our gross domestic product so this report can have real consequences for mortgage rates.
Also today, we're due a report covering October's industrial production. It's expected to show a contraction of -0.3%, which is the same as September's number.
For mortgage rates to fall, we'd like the retail sales and industrial production numbers to be lower than markets are expecting. Higher figures could push those rates upward, while as-expected ones might cause little or no change.
Chances are, today's import price index (IPI) will pass by unnoticed. It's the least important of the price indexes.
However, any economic report can cause waves if it brings sufficiently shocking good or bad data.
Next week
Next week is a relatively light one for economic reports, with the first ones that could affect mortgage rates appreciably not landing until Friday. So, if those rates change much before then, it will probably be down to yet more market speculation about the impact of Trumponomics.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
