Mortgage Rates Today, Nov. 14, 2024: Calmer Mortgage Rates. But Will They Last?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.92% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.99%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.17%, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.37%, reflecting no change.
In brief
Yesterday's inflation data were very close to expectations. And mortgage rates barely moved in response.
But we wouldn't bank on volatility being over. It might be, of course. But plenty is coming down the line that could rile markets.
First up is Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Markets still expect the Fed to cut general interest rates on Dec. 18. So, watch out that Powell doesn't try to rein in that expectation when he speaks publicly at 3 p.m. Eastern today. He may also discuss 2025 rate-cut plans.
We're not expecting (though you never know) this morning's economic reports to cause much of a stir. The producer price index (PPI) is the more important. But that tends to be much less influential than yesterday's consumer price index (CPI). So, yesterday's shrug over CPI numbers was a good sign.
We might see some delayed reaction in markets today to the news that Republicans have achieved a clean red sweep. In other words, they've taken control of the House, the Senate, and the White House (and also have a largely compliant Supreme Court). Investors typically prefer at least one chamber of Congress to be able to act as a brake on executive power.
Tomorrow's retail sales report could provoke a significant reaction, though only if it exceeds or falls short of market expectations. Read on for more details.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.92% | 6.95% | +0.01% | +0.36% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.99% | 6.06% | +0.01% | +0.35% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.17% | 7% | +0.02% | +0.29% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.14% | 6.3% | -0.06% | +0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.18% | 6.31% | -0.02% | +0.45% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.37% | 7.39% | +0% | +0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.69% | 6.72% | -0.08% | +0.03% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.92% | 6.96% | +0.03% | +0.38% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.84% | 5.9% | +0.01% | +0.37% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.16% | 6.99% | +0.01% | +0.29% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.15% | 6.31% | -0.06% | +0.16% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.72% | 6.76% | -0.07% | +0.02% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
Price indexes comprise four main elements. Two cover the reporting month (October). And the other two measure year-over-year (YOY) price changes (Nov. 1, 2023-Oct. 31, 2024).
Why two reports for each period? Well, the first is the standard index, measuring all surveyed prices in each period. The second is "core" PPI, which excludes gas and energy prices. Eliminating those, which are especially volatile, reveals the underlying trend.
Because the PPI is a relatively unimportant index, markets have expectations for only two of those four elements. Here's what MarketWatch says markets are expecting from today's PPI:
- October PPI — 0.2%, up from September's 0.0%
- YOY PPI — No forecast. September saw 1.8%
- October core PPI — No forecast. September saw 0.1%
- YOY core PPI — 0.2%. But, given that September's figure was 3.2%, that forecast is almost certainly a rare MarketWatch typo
The only other economic report on today's calendar is the weekly new claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending Nov. 9. They're expected to barely budge. So, they're unlikely to cause much excitement.
Don't forget to watch out for a delayed reaction to yesterday afternoon's announcement of a clean red sweep (above), and for Fed Chair Powell's speech.
Tomorrow
Friday's retail sales figures for October could easily be this week's most important report. They're expected to grow by 0.3% that month, which is a hint slower than September's 0.4%. Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of our gross domestic product so this report can have real consequences for mortgage rates.
We're also expecting October's industrial production report for October. It's expected to show a contraction of 0.3%, which is the same as September's number.
Chances are, tomorrow's import price index (IPI) will pass by unnoticed. It's the least important of the price indexes.
However, any economic report can cause waves if it brings sufficiently shocking good or bad data.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
