Mortgage Rates Today, Nov. 13, 2024: Today's Big Inflation Report Could Move Rates Either Way
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.9% today, an increase of 0.05% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.98%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.15%, having risen by 0.11. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.36%, reflecting an increase of 0.08%.
In brief
Yesterday, we talked about that morning's Financial Times headline, "Trump victory leaves Wall Street giddy." Part of the cause of that giddiness was concern about how President-elect Donald Trump's policies might affect future inflation.
But what about current inflation? This morning's consumer price index (CPI) should tell us more.
In recent months, CPIs have been less influential than they were, because markets have been confident that price rises have been reined in. But, with inflation front-of-mind again for investors, might today's report regain some of its edge?
We'll have to wait and see. But it's a possibility. Keep reading for details of what markets are expecting from the report.
Yesterday, mortgage rates rose appreciably. And, that day, Lawrence Gillum, a fixed-income strategist for broker-dealer LPL Financial spoke to MarketWatch about bond markets: "We are in a new environment because of concern that inflation is picking up," he said. "And you could argue that worries about debt levels are also playing a role in the selloff."
Gillum was talking about the yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. But mortgage rates often shadow those, as they did yesterday.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.9% | 6.94% | +0.05% | +0.35% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.98% | 6.05% | +0.08% | +0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.15% | 6.98% | +0.11% | +0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.2% | 6.36% | +0.12% | +0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.19% | 6.34% | +0.22% | +0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.36% | 7.39% | +0.08% | +0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.77% | 6.81% | +0.08% | +0.32% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.89% | 6.93% | +0.09% | +0.35% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.82% | 5.89% | +0.1% | +0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.15% | 6.98% | +0.11% | +0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.21% | 6.36% | +0.12% | +0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.79% | 6.83% | +0.09% | +0.08% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
Price indexes comprise four main elements. Two cover the reporting month (October). And the other two measure year-over-year (YOY) price changes (Nov. 1, 2023-Oct. 31, 2024).
Why two reports for each period? Well, the first is the standard index, measuring all surveyed prices in each period. The second is "core" CPI, which excludes gas and energy prices. Eliminating those, which are especially volatile, reveals the underlying trend.
Here's what MarketWatch says markets are expecting from today's CPI:
- October CPI — 0.2%, unchanged from September's figure
- YOY CPI — 2.6%, up slightly from September's 2.4%. (The forecast has inched up since yesterday's 2.5%)
- October core CPI — 0.3%, unchanged from September's figure
- YOY core CPI — 3.33%, unchanged from September's figure
If this morning's figures come in as expected, mortgage rates might barely move in response. If they're higher, that could exert upward pressure on those rates. And lower-than-expected numbers could exert downward pressure.
The Federal Reserve is fielding no fewer than five of its top officials in public engagements today. Investors will be listening for any guidance about how the Fed might change its policies in response to the president-elect's victory last week. Some are already expecting fewer cuts to general interest rates than were penciled in only weeks ago.
This afternoon also brings the monthly federal budget, which is expected to have ballooned to -$243 billion in October from September's -$67 billion.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's schedule includes the producer price index (PPI), which measures prices earlier in the supply chain than consumers see. It's nothing like as important as the CPI, but could still affect mortgage rates. Markets expect October PPI to come in at 0.2%, up from September's 0.0%.
Also, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have a speaking engagement tomorrow afternoon. Markets always pay attention to anything new he says.
Later in the week
Friday's retail sales figures may well rival the CPI for this week's most important report. So, stand by for that.
We'll brief you more fully on each of the more important economic reports before the data are published.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
