Mortgage Rates Today, Nov. 8, 2024: Why Did Rates Fall Yesterday?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.83% today, a decrease of 0.07% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.91%, down by 0.09%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.18%, having dropped by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.33%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
In brief
We were surprised by yesterday's fall in mortgage rates. As our article on Thursday, No, The Fed Rate Cut Won’t Bring Down Mortgage Rates Today, explained, it probably had little to do with the Federal Reserve's cut to general interest rates. That's been baked in for ages.
And it can't have been mainstream Trump trades because those have been causing mortgage rates to rise. Meanwhile, yesterday's economic reports were too minor and their figures too close to expectations to have triggered such a big fall.
The drop is also unlikely to be down to remarks made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell that afternoon. His comments on maybe slowing rate cuts in 2025 would normally push mortgage rates higher.
And the same goes for his possible future fight with President-elect Donald Trump's administration. During his campaign, Trump contemplated exerting more political control over interest rates and firing Powell. When asked if he'd resign if asked to by the next president, the Fed chair gave a one-word answer: No. Bond markets and mortgage rates hate the sort of uncertainty such a battle could bring.
So, there were plenty of reasons for mortgage rates to rise yesterday, and few that could account for the sizeable fall we saw.
The explanation may be as simple as it is unsatisfactory. When markets have been buffeted by as much volatility as ours have, we shouldn't be surprised by seemingly irrational days when traders take a step back from firefighting and try to make sense of the bigger picture.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.83% | 6.87% | -0.07% | +0.3% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.91% | 5.97% | -0.09% | +0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.18% | 7.01% | -0.05% | +0.37% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.2% | 6.35% | -0.05% | +0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.2% | 6.34% | -0.03% | +0.49% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.33% | 7.36% | -0.01% | +0.31% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.61% | 6.64% | -0.08% | +0.03% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.8% | 6.84% | -0.06% | +0.29% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.77% | 5.84% | -0.08% | +0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.18% | 7.02% | -0.05% | +0.38% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.21% | 6.37% | -0.05% | +0.27% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.67% | 6.71% | -0.05% | -0.07% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
There's only one report on today's calendar. And that's preliminary consumer sentiment data for November. The headline figure is expected to nudge up to 71.0 from October's 70.5.
We'd need a smaller-than-expected number to stand much chance of mortgage rates falling. But this report doesn't typically move them far.
Next week
Markets are closed next Monday for Veterans' Day. Mortgage rates shouldn't move so we won't publish this report that day.
Next Tuesday brings the small business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). But that's another report that rarely affects mortgage rates much.
However, next Wednesday's schedule is led by the consumer price index. Until recently, CPIs were the most important economic report in any month.
However, with consumer prices seemingly reined in, that's no longer the case. Still, the CPI is likely to be the report next week that's most consequential for mortgage rates
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
