Mortgage Rates Today, Nov. 7, 2024: It's Fed Day!
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.9% today, a decrease of 0.13% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6%, down by 0.14%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.23%, having dropped by 0.09. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.34%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
In brief
If you want to know what President-elect Donald Trump's victory means for mortgage rates, read Why Mortgage Rates Are Climbing After Trump’s Election Win.In fact, mortgage rates didn't rise as far yesterday as many feared. That may be because they've generally been moving higher for some weeks in anticipation of a Trump win. So, they don't have as far to catch up as they would have if the election results were a complete shock.
The question this morning is: Have markets done with Trump trades? If so, things might soon get back to normal for mortgage rates. In other words, they may again rise and fall mostly in line with economic data.
However, roughly every six weeks, another potentially important influence occurs. And that's the Federal Reserve's policy announcements on general interest rates, which will be clarified today.
Pretty much everyone thinks the Fed will implement a quarter-point (25-basis-point) cut to general interest rates at 2 p.m. (ET) this afternoon. And, if that happens, mortgage rates may barely budge.
That's because bond investors trade ahead of news based on what they expect to happen. And mortgage rates are largely determined by the yields on a type of bond.
So, a quarter-point cut should barely affect them for the same reason Trump trades were relatively muted today. The news had already been baked into mortgage rates.
However, there's a tiny chance of a half-point reduction this afternoon. And, if that unexpected event happens, mortgage rates might fall, perhaps appreciably, if they're not contending with more Trump trades.
Watch out, too, for a news conference due to be hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 Eastern this afternoon. He may reveal changes to the Fed's thinking on future cuts to general interest rates. If he does, mortgage rates may well respond.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.9% | 6.94% | -0.13% | +0.32% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6% | 6.06% | -0.14% | +0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.23% | 7.06% | -0.09% | +0.37% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.25% | 6.41% | -0.12% | +0.38% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.23% | 6.37% | -0.06% | +0.49% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.34% | 7.37% | -0.02% | +0.5% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.69% | 6.73% | +0.08% | +0.13% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.87% | 6.9% | -0.14% | +0.3% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.85% | 5.92% | -0.12% | +0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.23% | 7.06% | -0.08% | +0.38% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.26% | 6.42% | -0.11% | +0.39% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.72% | 6.76% | +0.08% | -0.01% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
Besides the Fed's activities, there are two economic reports due today that might normally affect those rates. Those are:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 2 — Markets expect those to come in at 220,000, up slightly from the previous week's 216,000
- Productivity in the third quarter of this year — Markets expect this to hold steady at the second quarter's 2.5%
As always, for mortgage rates to fall, we need the figures to be worse for the economy than markets are expecting. That's higher for unemployment claims and lower for productivity. But we doubt these minor data will make much difference given markets' febrile mood.
Tomorrow
There's only one report on tomorrow's calendar. And that's preliminary consumer sentiment for November. It's expected to nudge up to 71.0 from October's 70.5.
Again, we'd need a smaller-than-expected number to stand much chance of mortgage rates falling. But this report doesn't typically move them far.
