Mortgage Rates Today, Nov. 6, 2024: Chance of Massive Rate Rise Today as Former President on Brink of Victory
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 7.03% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.14%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.32%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.36%, reflecting an increase of 0.04%.
In brief
As we write, former President Donald Trump is three electoral college votes short of becoming President-elect Donald Trump. His rival needs 46 votes to win, a close-to-impossible target.
A clean red sweep seems by far the most likely outcome. Republicans have already taken the U.S. Senate and have 21 more House seats than the Democrats. By the time you read this, things will probably have changed.
The bond market that largely determines mortgage rates is unlikely to welcome the news. MarketWatch explained why:
"So-called Trump trades took hold Tuesday evening ...The common thread among all these trades is that they are based on a combination of expected policies from Trump that include tax cuts, looser regulation of cryptocurrencies, and tariffs against other countries that may end up boosting inflation in the U.S."
Bond markets fear a combination of higher inflation and a larger deficit implied by Trump's stated policies. And they especially dislike a clean sweep, which might see the executive unconstrained by the legislature (and, with a conservative Supreme Court, the judiciary).
In overnight trading, investors globally sold U.S. debt, forcing yields on 10-year Treasury notes appreciably higher. Unfortunately, mortgage rates tend to shadow yields on that particular asset. So, we won't be surprised if mortgage rates rise sharply today.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.03% | 7.07% | +0.01% | +0.43% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.14% | 6.21% | +0.04% | +0.56% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.32% | 7.15% | +-0% | +0.51% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.37% | 6.53% | +0.01% | +0.6% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.28% | 6.43% | +0.05% | +0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.36% | 7.39% | +0.04% | +0.64% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.61% | 6.64% | +0.04% | +0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7% | 7.04% | +-0% | +0.48% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.98% | 6.04% | +0.06% | +0.57% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.31% | 7.14% | +-0% | +0.51% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.38% | 6.53% | +0.01% | +0.61% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.64% | 6.67% | +0.01% | -0.01% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's calendar. So, any movements in mortgage rates will likely be down to election outcomes and tomorrow's Fed rate cut (see below).
Media, markets, and foreign governments all seem to be treating a Trump presidency as a done deal, which it almost certainly is. So, expect a significant rise in mortgage rates today.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow afternoon's 2 p.m. (ET) Fed rate announcement, and a news conference hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell 30 minutes later, are likely to vie with the election results for domination of mortgage rates tomorrow.
The Federal Reserve is due to announce any changes it's making to general interest rates that day. According to the CME FedWatch tool, 99.6% of specialist investors expect a modest quarter-point (25-basis-point) cut. The rest think there may be no cut. That percentage was 94.1% before election results started to roll in a few hours ago.
A quarter-point one is unlikely to affect mortgage rates much, with
little more than a ripple likely. However, no cut could send mortgage
rates shooting appreciably higher.
A shock half-point cut is very unlikely but not impossible. And it would probably send mortgage rates lower.
How much lower depends on how quickly markets get over their obsession with the election.
There are two economic reports due earlier in the day that might normally affect those rates. Those are:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 2 — Markets expect those to come in at 220,000, up slightly from the previous week's 216,000
- Productivity in the third quarter of this year — Markets expect this to hold steady at the second quarter's 2.5%
As always, for mortgage rates to fall, we need the figures to be worse for the economy than markets are expecting. But we doubt these minor data will make much difference given markets' febrile mood.
