Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 28, 2025: Key Inflation Report Due This Morning
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.73% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.75%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.98%, having dropped by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.12%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Last week, markets were fearful of the possibility of a recession, and that led to modestly lower mortgage rates. So far this week, they've been more worried about inflation, which has pushed those rates moderately higher.
Their focus on prices may well make today's inflation report even more influential than usual. A smaller-than-expected rise in prices could allay inflation fears and allow mortgage rates to fall back. But a bigger-than-expected increase might push those rates higher.
Recently, Wall Street has been more concerned about tariff news than economic data. Today might be different, but don't expect that to last long. A whole raft of new tariffs is due to be announced next Wednesday, Apr. 2, and it could easily regain the spotlight.
As we explained yesterday, analysts and economists are divided over how markets will react to next Wednesday's news. Most seem to expect a reaction that would normally produce a fall in mortgage rates on the day. But some expect a rise soon after as Wall Street expresses relief that some uncertainty has finally been lifted. Others are skeptical that any new certainty will last.
Next Friday should bring the March jobs report. And these are often the most influential of all economic reports. Will it be this month? We won't know that until we read the data and see how markets react to them.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.73% | 6.77% | -0.01% | +0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.75% | 5.8% | -0.04% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.98% | 7.19% | -0.06% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.06% | 6.21% | -0.02% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.09% | 6.23% | -0.02% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.12% | 7.14% | -0.03% | +0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.82% | -0.01% | -0.08% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.83% | 6.87% | -0.01% | +0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.74% | 5.79% | -0.04% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.98% | 7.18% | -0.06% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.16% | 6.3% | -0.02% | +0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.86% | 6.9% | -0.05% | -0.06% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently, especially over tariffs.
Mortgage rates today
There are two reports on this morning's MarketWatch economic calendar. The more important is likely to be the inflation report, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for February.
This is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation, mainly because it is more comprehensive and accurate than the consumer price index (CPI). Markets tend to pay more attention to the CPI because it lands earlier in the month. We'll see how that works out today.
PCE price index
Major price indexes contain four headline figures. Two report how prices have moved over the reporting period (February). And two others are year-over-year (YOY) figures (Jan. 31, 2024 - Feb. 28, 2025).
Of the two for each period, one is the straight price index, which shows how all prices in the survey have changed. And the other shows "core" inflation, which is all the same prices excluding those for food and energy.
Here's what markets are expecting this morning:
- February PCE — Markets are expecting a 0.3% increase, the same as January's
- YOY PCE — Markets are expecting a 2.5% increase, the same as January's
- February core PCE — Markets are expecting a 0.3% increase, the same as January's
- YOY core PCE — Markets are expecting a 2.7% increase, a tiny increase on January's 2.6%
To repeat what we said above: A smaller-than-expected rise in prices could allay inflation fears and allow mortgage rates to fall back. But a bigger-than-expected increase might push those rates higher.
Consumer sentiment
The other report on today's calendar is the final consumer sentiment index for March. This has been falling over the last couple of months as both business and consumer confidence has crumbled. So, again, this may be more influential than usual.Markets are expecting the index to hold steady at 57.9. A higher number might push mortgage rates upward, while a lower one might drag them downward.
