Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 21, 2025: Rates Continue Their Slow Fall. Will It Last?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.53% today, a decrease of 0.09% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.65%, down by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.85%, having dropped by 0.13. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.71%, reflecting a decrease of 0.37%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates have fallen every day since Monday. And there's little on the calendar to suggest today will be different.
Yet, when the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) economics team published its longer-term forecast yesterday, it predicted rates only a little lower than current ones right the way through to the end of 2027.
Specifically, the MBA expects average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to hold at 6.8% during the first two quarters of this year, then dip to 6.5% over the next two quarters. After that, it's forecasting 6.4% through all of 2026 and 2027.
Let's not get too despondent yet. If our daily column has had a theme over the last couple of months, it's been one of uncertainty. And we'd bet that the MBA's economists would be the first to say that their forecasts are based on assumptions that may well change.
In particular, many on Wall Street worry that tariffs might deliver slower growth, and slightly higher unemployment and inflation later this year. If confidence continues to erode as the hard data showing those trends are published, a recession would be far from unlikely. Indeed, it was only a week ago that The Wall Street Journal reported that "fears of a recession are on the rise."
And recessions almost always lead to sharply lower mortgage rates. Still, nobody knows just how likely or unlikely a recession is. That Journal story had the headline, " ... The Uncertainty Economy."
So, it's way too soon to bank on lower mortgage rates based on an economic downturn. Our advice would be to ignore rumor and uncertainty if you're in the market to buy a first home or move to another.
February's existing home sales, published yesterday, showed a surprisingly big bump, keeping pressure on house prices and increasing the risk of your missing out on the property you want. And, if mortgage rates do fall significantly later in the year, you could always consider a refinance.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.53% | 6.56% | -0.09% | -0.34% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.65% | 5.71% | -0.05% | -0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.85% | 7.06% | -0.13% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.85% | 6% | -0.16% | -0.45% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.3% | 6.49% | +0.19% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.71% | 6.73% | -0.37% | -0.46% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.28% | 6.33% | -0.38% | -0.53% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.64% | 6.67% | -0.1% | -0.31% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.63% | 5.68% | -0.06% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.84% | 7.05% | -0.13% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.94% | 6.08% | -0.13% | -0.41% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.52% | 6.57% | -0.33% | -0.24% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently.
Mortgage rates today
No economic reports are due to be published today, according to the MarketWatch economic calendar. So, any changes in rates today will likely be down to that mood and news.
Next week
Next week is busier for economic reports than this one has been. And the calendar includes consumer confidence, final Q4/24 gross domestic product figures, the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation, and consumer sentiment.
