Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 19, 2025: It's Fed Day!
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.71% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.79%, up by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.04%, having risen by 0.08. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.12%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
The most consequential events for mortgage rates this week (and possibly this month) are scheduled for this afternoon. We wrote about them yesterday and will leave that in place today for readers who missed what we said. However, we'll update the text and one figure so it makes sense today.But, before repeating yesterday's Fed-related words, here's some new context from MarketWatch yesterday evening:
"Investors are waiting to hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, after the central bank’s two-day policy meeting concludes with a
decision on interest rates and an updated summary of economic projections. Wall Street’s stagflation fears could rise if the latest projections point to a potential rise in both inflation and unemployment, as worries that tariffs risk hurting economic growth and driving up consumer prices have kept investors on edge."
And here's Comerica Bank's take on what to expect, published Monday:
"The FOMC’s decision is the week’s main economic event. While no changes are expected, markets will closely scrutinize policymakers’ economic and interest forecasts and Chair Powell’s comments for clues about the future path of monetary policy. The FOMC could also unveil plans to pause or end its balance sheet reduction program (a.k.a. 'Quantitative Tightening' or QT)."
Fed announcement
Yesterday saw the start of a two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). These occur roughly every six weeks. And, at 2 p.m. Eastern today, the Fed announces whether it is changing its federal funds rate, on which most other interest rates are based.
Don't expect a change this afternoon. According to the CME FedWatch tool, 100% (no, really!) of investors wagering on the announcement are anticipating that the rate will hold steady.
What potentially makes today interesting isn't the announcement but the Summary of Economic Projections that will accompany it and a 2:30 p.m. (EST) news conference hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Dot plot
The projections document includes the famous "dot plot," which is published four times a year. That's a graph on which each voting FOMC member has plotted his or her personal expectations for how the federal funds rate will move over the foreseeable future.
In other words, it's how the people who change that rate think that rate will change. And, understandably, that's cat-nip to investors, who are likely to adjust their portfolios to reflect the FOMC's new expectations.
Powell's news conference can be similarly influential. Wall Street hangs on his every word, searching for hints about future rate policy in his text and tone.
None of this necessarily means today will see big movements in mortgage rates. If nothing new is revealed by the Fed, those rates may barely move. But FOMC meetings are sometimes a flashpoint.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.71% | 6.75% | +0.01% | -0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.79% | 5.85% | +0.03% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.04% | 6.87% | +0.08% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.1% | 6.25% | +0.02% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.2% | 6.34% | +0.15% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.12% | 7.14% | +-0% | +0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.8% | 6.84% | +0.01% | +0.02% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.82% | 6.85% | -0.01% | -0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.78% | 5.84% | +0.03% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.04% | 6.87% | +0.08% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.16% | 6.3% | +0.04% | -0.13% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.96% | 7% | +0.01% | +0.13% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently.
Mortgage rates today
Today is all about the Fed — as described above. No economic reports are on today's calendar.Tomorrow
We're due four economic reports tomorrow. But, like yesterday, these rarely affect mortgage rates. Meanwhile, no reports are due on Friday.
That doesn't mean mortgage rates will not move on those days. As we've seen over the last couple of months, volatility in markets is commonplace, whether or not economic data is published.
