Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 18, 2025: Stand By for Tomorrow's Fed Rate Annoucement
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.7% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.77%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.97%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.12%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Despite wild swings in stock markets, mortgage rates so far in March really haven't moved far. According to Mortgage News Daily's archive, they stood at 6.74% on the first day of the month and closed at 6.80% last night. Some readers might be irritated by that small rise, but few will lose any sleep over it.
This lazy drifting up and down could last for weeks. Or it could change dramatically tomorrow.
Fed announcement
Today sees the start of a two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). These occur roughly every six weeks. And, at 2 p.m. Eastern on the second day, the Fed announces whether it is changing its federal funds rate, on which most other interest rates are based.
Don't expect a change tomorrow. According to the CME FedWatch tool, 98% of investors wagering on the announcement are anticipating that the rate will hold steady.
What potentially makes tomorrow interesting isn't the announcement but the Summary of Economic Projections that will accompany it and a 2:30 p.m. (EST) news conference hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Dot plot
The projections document includes the famous "dot plot." That's a graph on which each voting FOMC member has plotted his or her personal expectations for how the federal funds rate will move over the foreseeable future.
In other words, it's how the people who change that rate think that rate will change. And, understandably, that's cat-nip to investors, who are likely to adjust their portfolios to reflect the FOMC's expectations.
Powell's news conference can be similarly influential. Wall Street hangs on his every word, searching for hints about future rate policy in his text and tone.
None of this necessarily means tomorrow will see big movements in mortgage rates. If nothing new is revealed by the Fed, those rates may barely move. But FOMC meetings are sometimes a flashpoint.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.7% | 6.74% | -0.01% | -0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.77% | 5.82% | +0.02% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.97% | 6.8% | +0% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.08% | 6.23% | +0.03% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.06% | 6.2% | -0.02% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.12% | 7.15% | +-0% | +0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.79% | 6.83% | +0% | +0.01% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.83% | 6.86% | +-0% | -0.07% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.75% | 5.8% | +0.02% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.97% | 6.8% | +0% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.11% | 6.26% | +0.03% | -0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.94% | 6.99% | +0.02% | +0.12% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently.
Mortgage rates today
According to MarketWatch, several economic reports are due this morning. However, it's rare for any of these to affect mortgage rates much.
Perhaps the one that is most likely to have an impact is industrial production in February. Markets expect that to have grown by 0.3%, down from 0.5% in January.
Lower-than-expected numbers are usually better for mortgage rates than higher-than-expected ones.
Any economic report can affect mortgage rates if the gap between what markets are expecting and the report's actual figures is wide enough. But only fairly few reports (and none due today) typically cause much movement.
Tomorrow
Read about tomorrow's FOMC meeting in the previous section. Here's Comerica Bank's take on what to expect:"The FOMC’s decision is the week’s main economic event. While no changes are expected, markets will closely scrutinize policymakers’ economic and interest forecasts and Chair Powell’s comments for clues about the future path of monetary policy. The FOMC could also unveil plans to pause or end its balance sheet reduction program (a.k.a. 'Quantitative Tightening' or QT)."
