Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 17, 2025: Retail Sales Data Due This Morning
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.71% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.75%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.97%, having dropped by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.13%, reflecting an increase of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Last Thursday, Torsten Slok, Apollo's chief economist, said we're in a wait-and-see economy. In other words, many businesses and consumers are so unsure what's coming next economically that they're unwilling to commit to buying stuff.
"What characterizes a wait-and-see economy is that consumers and firms are more cautious about spending decisions," wrote Slok in an e-newsletter. Consumers are more reluctant to plan vacations, to buy cars, and to buy new washers and dryers. Similarly, firms are more reluctant to hire and more reluctant to do capex [capital expenditure].
We'll see with this morning's retail sales data for February (see below) just how cautious consumers have been. But last Friday's consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan exposed worrying trends. Yesterday, Slok (a busy man) laid out what the data revealed:
- Consumer sentiment is declining rapidly both for households making more than $100,000 and less than $100,000.
- Consumer worries about losing their jobs are at levels normally seen during recessions.
- A record-high share of consumers think business conditions are worsening.
- Households’ income expectations are declining.
- Inflation expectations are rising at an unprecedented speed.
How likely is a recession?
Economic growth is largely based on confidence. Consumers and businesses have to believe that the future is promising in order to spend the money that will create future prosperity. When that belief evaporates, recessions become much more likely.
However, some recession fears may be overblown. For example, we were shocked earlier this month when the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow gauge of gross domestic product (GDP) suddenly predicted a 2.8% (since reduced to 2.4%) contraction in the current quarter. It felt as if the sky was falling in. An updated figure is due later today.
But many believe that the normally reliable GDPNow had been skewed by a one-time event. Gold imports suddenly shot up earlier this month, simply because the price in London was lower than in New York, according to Fisher Investments and others. Americans shipped in so much gold so quickly that it upset the precision instrument that is GDPNow.
There's no doubt that a lot of recent economic data have been weakening. Employment isn't as buoyant as it was last year, and purchasing managers' indexes aren't as encouraging. Meanwhile, business and consumer confidence have been falling away fast since mid-January. Only last week's consumer price index provided a glimmer of hope.
But let's not get carried away quite yet. Employment data may not be as strong as in 2024, but the economy is still adding well over 100,000 new jobs each month. And consumer and business confidence may improve if certainty returns to markets. Meanwhile, Congress managed to avert a government shutdown on Friday.
Recessions typically lead to lower mortgage rates, not least because the Federal Reserve normally responds to them by lowering general interest rates. But they also bring financial misery to many Americans. So, let's hope we can see falling mortgage rates without too much pain.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.71% | 6.74% | -0.01% | -0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.75% | 5.81% | +0.02% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.97% | 6.8% | -0.04% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.05% | 6.19% | -0.02% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.09% | 6.23% | -0.01% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.13% | 7.15% | +0.02% | +0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.79% | 6.83% | +0.02% | +0.01% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.83% | 6.86% | -0.01% | -0.07% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.73% | 5.79% | +0.02% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.97% | 6.8% | -0.04% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.08% | 6.23% | -0.03% | -0.2% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.92% | 6.97% | +0.05% | +0.1% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently.
Mortgage rates today
Today's economic calendar will likely be dominated by the retail sales report for February. According to MarketWatch, markets are expecting those sales to bounce back to 0.6% growth following January's disastrous 0.9% contraction.
Lower-than-expected numbers are usually better for mortgage rates than higher-than-expected ones.
Later this week
Stand by for Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest rate announcement. This is a six-weekly event and follows a two-day meeting of the Fed's rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Hardly anyone expects the Fed to cut general interest rates on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch tool currently puts the chances of the current Fed rate staying the same at 99%.
However, the announcement will include a Summary of Economic Projections and will be followed by a news conference hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And markets will watch both closely for hints about future rates policy.
