Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 13, 2025: Disappointment Yesterday as Good CPI Failed to Help Rates
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.72% today, an increase of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.77%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.02%, having risen by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.12%, reflecting an increase of 0.09%.
The bigger picture
The headline figures for yesterday's consumer price index would normally have lowered mortgage rates. So, how come those rates edged upward?
Well, the devil was in the detail. Some of the CPI data supporting the headline figures suggested inflation may remain "sticky" (hard to shake off), something that may be reflected later this month in the more comprehensive PCE price index.
A couple of days ago, BlackRock summed up its view of the outlook: "Germany’s planned fiscal boost and the U.S. starting to levy hefty tariffs are major policy shifts. Policy uncertainty and bond yield spikes pose risks to growth and stocks near term. We see more upward pressure on European and U.S. yields from sticky inflation and rising debt levels, even as lower U.S. yields suggest markets expect a typical Federal Reserve response to a downturn."
In other words, even if there is a downturn in growth and the Fed lowers its rate, bond yields (including the one that largely determines mortgage rates) are unlikely to fall as far as you might think.
Government shutdown looms
Mortgage rates might fall in the short term if the government partially shuts down at midnight on Friday. Such events cause economic damage, and that typically helps those rates.
Yesterday, we told you that the House had passed a six-month funding bill but that a fight was likely in the Senate. The possibility of such a shutdown looks greater today.
Yesterday evening, The New York Times reported how events are unfolding: "The federal government edged closer to a shutdown after Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, said the stopgap bill to fund the government for six months did not have enough support for a vote in the Senate. He said Democrats in the chamber instead wanted a 30-day bill to negotiate a bipartisan solution. The government’s funding is set to run out on Friday and there is little time to find another path: House Republicans purposefully left town after passing the six-month funding bill."
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.72% | 6.75% | +0.04% | -0.2% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.77% | 5.83% | +0.08% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.02% | 6.84% | +0.04% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.06% | 6.21% | -0.02% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.1% | 6.24% | +0.03% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.12% | 7.14% | +0.09% | -0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.77% | 6.82% | +0.05% | -0.01% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.82% | 6.84% | +0.05% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.76% | 5.81% | +0.06% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6% | 6.83% | +0.02% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.1% | 6.25% | -0.03% | -0.2% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.92% | 6.97% | +0.02% | +0.1% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen as recently as yesterday.
Here is Comerica Bank's economic team's outlook for this week:
"Inflation data will dominate the economic calendar this week. ... Pushed higher by tariffs and tariff threats, producer prices probably rose faster than consumer prices for a second month running, keeping annual PPI elevated. The New York Fed’s consumer survey is expected to show rising inflation expectations [it did], as is the University of Michigan’s, where the overall economic outlook likely dimmed in early March."
Mortgage rates today
This morning's producer price index (PPI) is different from yesterday's CPI. It measures price changes at factory gates and in warehouses rather than on retailers' shelves and service providers' rate cards and menus.
But PPIs also tend to influence mortgage rates less than CPIs. However, right now, market reactions to new data are highly unpredictable.
Price indices, including today's PPI, contain four main components. Two cover the reporting month (February) and two show the year-over-year (YOY) figures (Mar. 1, 2024-Feb 28, 2025). The first for each period measures price changes for all items in the survey. And the second shows "core" inflation: the same changes, excluding those for food and energy.
Here are market expectations, according to the MarketWatch economic calendar, for this morning's PPI:
- Feb. PPI — Markets are expecting a 0.3% rise, smaller than January's 0.4%
- YOY PPI — No market expectations published; 3.5% in January
- Feb core PPI — Markets are expecting a 0.3% rise, unchanged since January
- YOY core PPI — No market expectations published; 3.4% in January
For lower mortgage rates, we'd like to see as many as possible of today's figures coming in lower than markets are expecting. Higher-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates upward, while on-forecast ones often leave them untouched.
Also today, we're due initial jobless claims for the week ending March 8. They're expected to come in at 225,000, only slightly higher than the previous week's 221,000. In this case, higher numbers are better for mortgage rates than lower ones because the more people are claiming unemployment benefits for the first time, the worse the economy is performing. But these reports typically have little or no effect on those rates.
Tomorrow
There's only one economic report on tomorrow's calendar, the preliminary consumer sentiment index for March. That's expected to drop to 63.2 from February's 65.7. Lower-than-expected numbers are usually better for mortgage rates.
