Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 11, 2025: Rates Improve as Stock Market Tumbles
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.63% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.64%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.92%, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.02%, reflecting an increase of 0.05%.
The bigger picture
The lead story in yesterday evening's Wall Street Journal ran under the subheadline, "Dow, S&P retreat, Treasury yields drop as economic fears mount."
"Stocks slid Monday as concerns about the U.S. economy tipping into a recession grew," was the first line in the report. The damage was significant, with the Dow down close to 900 points, the S&P 500 2.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite 4%.
It's no surprise that mortgage rates fell yesterday as stocks tumbled. Those rates are largely determined by the yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security.
When investors flee the profitable but risky stock market, they often seek sanctuary in boring but safe bonds. That extra demand pushes bond prices up, and it's a mathematical certainty that bond yields move inversely to bond prices.
The Journal says yesterday's stock market rout was partly because, "President Trump over the weekend refused to rule out the U.S. entering a recession this year ..." But he was almost certainly correct to do so.
Last week, we reported that the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model had suddenly switched from predicting roughly similar growth (+2.3%) in this quarter to the previous one. Last week, it was predicting that the economy would contract by -2.8% during the first three months of this year, an enormous swing.
But, on Mar. 6, it revised that estimate to a -2.4% contraction. So, things got a little better but remain bad enough to cause palpitations.
One quarter doesn't spell a recession. But, according to many economists (but not the U.S. government) two successive quarters of contractions do.
What's really surprising is that it took markets so long to notice.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.63% | 6.66% | +0.01% | -0.24% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.64% | 5.69% | -0.01% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.92% | 6.74% | +0.02% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.02% | 6.17% | +0.06% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.08% | 6.21% | +0.11% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.02% | 7.04% | +0.05% | -0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.64% | 6.68% | -0.01% | -0.05% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.72% | 6.75% | +0.01% | -0.23% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.62% | 5.67% | -0.02% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.91% | 6.74% | +0.03% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.05% | 6.2% | +0.04% | -0.26% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.77% | 6.82% | -0.07% | +0.04% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen as recently as yesterday.
Here is Comerica Bank's economic team's outlook for this week:
"Inflation data will dominate the economic calendar this week. The total and core Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) likely rose at a more moderate pace in February after sharp increases in the prior month, resulting in annual increases holding roughly steady. Pushed higher by tariffs and tariff threats, producer prices probably rose faster than consumer prices for a second month running, keeping annual PPI elevated. The federal government’s budget balance likely turned positive last month for the first time in the current fiscal year. Small business optimism probably eased. The New York Fed’s consumer survey is expected to show rising inflation expectations, as is the University of Michigan’s, where the overall economic outlook likely dimmed in early March."
Congressional Republicans are working to avert the possibility of a government shutdown starting Friday, according to Fox News. A vote on a funding bill is due this afternoon, and the party's leadership is trying to line up its troops to pass the proposal into law. If it fails and a shutdown actually occurs, that might be good for mortgage rates, at least in the short term, but make the mood in stock markets even worse.
Mortgage rates today
Only two reports are on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. Those are the February small business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business and January's job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS). Neither of those typically moves mortgage rates perceptibly. However, in the current environment, nothing is certain.
Tomorrow brings what is usually the second most important report in any month, the consumer price index (CPI). For it to stand a good chance of pushing mortgage rates even lower, we need it to show lower numbers than are currently expected. We'll let you have a more detailed briefing on the report tomorrow morning, before its publication.
