Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 6, 2025: Tomorrow's Jobs Report Could Change Everything — for Better or Worse
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.68% today, an increase of 0.1% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.66%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.94%, having risen by 0.12. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.08%, reflecting an increase of 0.15%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates edged upward yesterday. It was the first rise in nearly a week and came after a series of mostly bigger falls.
What changed were hints from the commerce secretary that tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico might be short-lived, followed by an announcement that tariffs paid by automakers on those imports would be paused for a month.
Yesterday's key economic data may have stopped the day's rise being bigger. True, the Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in stronger than expected, which would often be bad for mortgage rates.
But the ADP employment report, which measures only private-sector jobs, was much weaker than anticipated. Markets had been expecting 148,000 new jobs in February, down from January's 186,000. However, yesterday's actual figure was just 77,000, which should have helped restrain the rise in mortgage rates.
That brings us to tomorrow's official jobs report, formally called the employment situation report, which measures all nonfarm jobs across the public and private sectors. This is likely to be this week's — and quite probably this month's — most consequential economic report for mortgage rates.
We'll publish this daily column later than usual tomorrow so we can bring you the actual figures and what those might mean for mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.68% | 6.71% | +0.1% | -0.24% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.66% | 5.72% | +0.08% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.94% | 6.77% | +0.12% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.02% | 6.17% | +0.16% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.02% | 6.16% | +0.22% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.08% | 7.1% | +0.15% | -0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.74% | 6.78% | +0.09% | -0.28% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.79% | 6.82% | +0.11% | -0.23% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.65% | 5.7% | +0.08% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.93% | 6.76% | +0.13% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.06% | 6.2% | +0.16% | -0.25% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.94% | 6.99% | +0.15% | +0.12% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
On Monday, the Comerica Bank economics team issued its regular preview of the week ahead. Here's what the team's expecting:
"The February jobs report and the ISM PMIs will be this week’s key data releases. Employment likely rose at a subdued pace again, while the unemployment rate likely edged higher. The DOGE cuts were a headwind to the job market last month, offsetting the recovery of jobs paused during January’s winter storms. Wage increases were likely modest as lower-paid hourly workers returned to work after the weather kept them off the clock in January."
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
Two reports are on today's calendar, according to MarketWatch. Initial jobless claims for the week ending Mar. 1 are expected to fall
compared with the previous week. And the final reading of productivity during the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to be unchanged from the
previous reading.
Neither of those typically moves mortgage rates far or for long. And two other reports due today (wholesale inventories and the trade deficit) rarely touch those rates at all.
But things couldn't be more different tomorrow. If the jobs report for February brings unexpected data, we could see serious volatility.
