Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 4, 2025: No Reports Scheduled But Rates Could Still Move
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.5% today, a decrease of 0.09% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.57%, down by 0.07%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.82%, having dropped by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.97%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday, we discussed how recent falls in mortgage rates are a result of investors' concerns about the economic outlook. Those rates barely moved yesterday but might well start tomorrow morning lower.Why's that? Well, mortgage lenders rarely change their rate cards more than once a day, typically at lunchtime. And, by that time yesterday, they did not need to adjust them.
But, later that afternoon, came an announcement that 25% tariffs will be levied on imports from Canada and Mexico starting today. And that sent stock markets plunging.
The impact on bonds was less pronounced. But it would still be no surprise if mortgage rates opened this morning lower than they closed last night.
On Sunday, MarketWatch explained the potential for this Friday's jobs report to create volatility in markets:
"Angst over the health of the U.S. economy has investors nervous about the possibility of an approaching recession — and the next big jobs report may not be enough to calm nerves for very long.
"That’s because investors and traders will be eyeing Friday’s nonfarm-payrolls report for February through the lens of recent developments that have led to mounting fears about consumer demand and a potential economic downturn, triggering notable drops in stocks and Treasury yields."
So, strap in for Friday's report.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.5% | 6.54% | -0.09% | -0.34% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.57% | 5.62% | -0.07% | -0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.82% | 6.65% | -0.04% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.84% | 5.99% | -0.08% | -0.35% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.88% | 6.02% | -0.13% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.97% | 6.99% | -0.03% | -0.22% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.71% | 6.75% | -0.13% | -0.23% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.6% | 6.63% | -0.07% | -0.34% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.56% | 5.61% | -0.07% | -0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.8% | 6.63% | -0.03% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.88% | 6.03% | -0.07% | -0.31% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.82% | -0.14% | +0.02% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Yesterday, the Comerica Bank economics team issued its regular preview of the week ahead. Here's what they're expecting:
"The February jobs report and the ISM [purchasing managers' indexes] PMIs will be this week’s key data releases. Employment likely rose at a subdued pace again, while the unemployment rate likely edged higher. The DOGE cuts were a headwind to the job market last month, offsetting the recovery of jobs paused during January’s winter storms. Wage increases were likely modest as lower-paid hourly workers returned to work after the weather kept them off the clock in January. ... The ISM Services PMI likely took another leg down."
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
No economic reports are scheduled for release today, according to MarketWatch. Tomorrow is different, and includes one of Comerica's two picks for "key data releases" this week:
- February purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the services sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — Consensus forecast 52.9%, up a tiny bit from January's 52.8%
- February PMI for the manufacturing sector from S&P Global — No consensus forecast
- February ADP employment report for the private sector — Consensus forecast 148,000 new jobs, sharply down from January's 183,000
- January factory orders — Consensus forecast 1.6% growth, well up on December's -0.9% contraction
Market expectations are largely set by analysts' consensus forecasts. Typically, mortgage rates are barely affected by data that come in on-forecast. Weaker than expected numbers tend to drag those rates lower while stronger-than-expected ones often push them higher.
