Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 3, 2025: Rates Continue Falling on Economic Worries
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.59% today, an increase of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.64%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.86%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
It's an oft-repeated truism here that mortgage rates tend to drop when the economy's struggling and rise when it's thriving. So, should we be surprised that they ended February appreciably lower than they started it?
Mortgage News Daily says mortgage rates start the week at their lowest level since Dec. 9. And it won't take much for them to drop to the previous low of Oct. 18.
A glance at most financial media answers our earlier question. Mortgage rates have been falling because consumers and investors are spooked by the nation's economic prospects.
For many investors, gold is the ultimate safe haven for their money when they're scared. And, last Thursday, Goldman Sachs reported, "The price of gold has surged more than 40% since the start of January 2024, repeatedly shattering records. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the rally in gold will continue amid demand from central banks. The price of the precious metal is predicted to climb a further 8% to $3,100 a troy ounce by the end of 2025."
Meanwhile, Saturday's New York Times said, "Investors are notably nervous. While few foresee a full-blown recession, according to Bank of America’s latest survey of fund managers, many are wary of the market’s uncertain direction, especially given the potential for reciprocal tariffs to spark a trade war, upend the Federal Reserve’s fight with inflation and crimp economic growth. Almost 90 percent of survey respondents said that stocks are overvalued."
Apollo chief economist Dr. Torsten Sløk concurs that a recession is unlikely anytime soon, but on Saturday referred to "a modest stagflation shock to the economy."
Of course, a recession would likely be very good for mortgage rates. But even we can't bring ourselves to hope for the high unemployment and financial deprivation that one of those typically brings. Still, as long as markets remain worried, we can all enjoy those rates heading lower.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.59% | 6.62% | +0.03% | -0.26% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.64% | 5.7% | +-0% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.86% | 6.69% | -0.01% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.92% | 6.07% | -0.02% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.01% | 6.15% | +0.01% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7% | 7.02% | +0.01% | -0.19% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.84% | 6.89% | -0.04% | -0.1% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.67% | 6.7% | +0.02% | -0.27% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.63% | 5.68% | +-0% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.82% | 6.65% | -0.02% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.96% | 6.1% | -0.02% | -0.24% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.92% | 6.97% | +0.11% | +0.16% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
This week
By far the most important economic report this week is likely to be Friday's monthly jobs report for February. This is often the most consequential data for mortgage rates in any given month.
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
Three economic reports are due today that could affect mortgage rates, according to MarketWatch:- February purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector from S&P Global — Market expectations not published
- February PMI for the manufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management — Markets expect a small fall to 50.6% from January's 50.9%
- January construction spending — Markets expect growth to slow to 0.1% compared with 0.5% in December
These sorts of weak data are what have been troubling investors in recent weeks.
Typically, mortgage rates are barely affected by data that come in on-forecast. Weaker than expected numbers tend to drag those rates lower while stronger-than-expected ones often push them higher.
No reports appear on tomorrow's economic calendar.
