Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 31, 2025: Inflation Report Due This Morning
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.85% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.89%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.14%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.19%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Experts are pretty gloomy about the prospects for future mortgage rates. Yesterday, Freddie Mac commented:
"The 30-year fixed-rate has hovered between 6% and 7% for most of the last two and a half years. That trend continued this week, with the average rate remaining essentially flat at 6.95%. Driven by these higher rates and a persistent supply shortage, affordability hurdles still exist for many homebuyers and a significant number of them remain on the sidelines."
Meanwhile, also yesterday, Erika Giovanetti, a U.S. News consumer lending analyst, wrote in an e-newsletter, "Mortgage rates remained fairly stable this week – but when the going rate on a 30-year fixed loan is around 7%, stability isn’t really a good thing for prospective homebuyers. In fact, rates are now expected to stay between 6.5% and 7% throughout 2025."
Of course, experts are frequently wrong. And, a couple of weeks ago, one of our colleagues wrote "The Case for 5% Rates," an article that highlighted that not all predictions are equally dismal. However, right now, it's easier to imagine negative scenarios than positive ones.
This morning's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation. Markets tend to respond more to the consumer price index, but investors interested in the Fed's rates policy should probably pay attention today.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.85% | 6.88% | -0.01% | -0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.89% | 5.95% | +0.01% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.14% | 6.97% | +0.01% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.19% | 6.34% | +0.01% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.11% | 6.25% | +0% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.19% | 7.21% | +-0% | -0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.94% | 7% | +0% | +0.11% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.94% | 6.98% | +0% | -0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.88% | 5.94% | +0.01% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.13% | 6.95% | +0% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.19% | 6.34% | +0.01% | -0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.76% | 6.8% | +0% | -0.15% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
Like all price indexes, this morning's PCE price index comprises four main components. Two cover the month being reported (December) and two are year-over-year (YOY) figures (Jan 1, 2024-Dec. 31, 2024).There are two numbers for each period. The first is called the PCE price index and measures changes in all prices in the survey. The second is the "core" PCE price index, which covers the same prices, excluding those for food and energy.
Here's what MarketWatch says markets are expecting for today's data:
> December PCE index — Markets expecting 0.3%, up from November's 0.1%
> YOY PCE — Markets expecting 2.6%, up from November's 2.4%
> December core PCE — Markets expecting 0.2%, up from November's 0.1%
> YOY core PCE — Markets expecting 2.8%, unchanged since November
Mortgage rates are likely to fall if a report's numbers are lower than expected. But they might rise if they're higher. How much they move typically depends on the size of the gap between expectations and actual figures. So, if everything comes in as expected, those rates may barely move.
