Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 27, 2025: A Busier Week Ahead — Wednesday's Fed Events Front and Center
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.96% today, a decrease of 0.05% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.97%, down by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.24%, having dropped by 0.12. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.24%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
It's Federal Reserve Week again already! The Fed will announce on Wednesday whether it will cut general interest rates, hike them, or leave them where they are.
Almost nobody expects a change. Overnight, the CME FedWatch tool showed investors believing there's a 99.5% chance of rates staying put with just 0.5% hoping for another cut.
A shock cut might well be good for mortgage rates. Those are determined by the trading of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) in a bond market. But MBS investors work ahead of events, only responding to announcements and data when they're unexpected.
So, those rates barely moved in response to the last announcement on Dec. 18 because everyone was expecting the cut that was unveiled that day. However, mortgage rates moved sharply higher that afternoon when the Fed revealed a significant fall in the number of cuts it had penciled in for 2025. Few saw that coming.
This time, the Fed won't be revealing its projections. We have to wait until Mar. 19 for the next set of those.
But Fed Chair Jerome Powell will host a news conference on Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern. And what he says could have a decisive effect on mortgage rates that day and possibly for the weeks that follow.
Last Friday, we wrote, "Our message has been the same all week. Bond investors are having a deer-in-the-headlights moment as events move at speed since Inauguration Day. And mortgage rates might not move decisively until bond markets make up their minds about what to expect economically from the new administration's policies."
This morning's Financial Times was still asking, "Will Donald Trump’s presidency be good or bad for fixed-income [i.e. bond] investors and how should they position themselves?" Powell's perspective, as revealed at his news conference, could help answer that question — and perhaps jolt the deer out of its stupor.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.96% | 7% | -0.05% | -0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.97% | 6.03% | -0.08% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.24% | 7.06% | -0.12% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.29% | 6.44% | -0.12% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.21% | 6.35% | -0.13% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.24% | 7.26% | -0.04% | -0.21% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.82% | -0.1% | -0.2% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.02% | 7.06% | -0.08% | -0.06% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.96% | 6.02% | -0.09% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.22% | 7.05% | -0.12% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.3% | 6.45% | -0.1% | -0.13% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.82% | 6.86% | -0.09% | -0.15% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
This week, the most likely source for such news is the Fed.
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
It's a fairly dull start to the week. Today's only economic report covers new home sales in December. And they're expected to rise to 671,000 from November's 664,000. But these reports rarely affect mortgage rates.
Most of tomorrow's reports similarly struggle to budge those rates. Those that just might have a limited and temporary impact are December's durable goods orders and January's consumer confidence index. We'll brief you more fully on them both tomorrow morning. But don't get too excited.
So, the first thing this week with the potential to move mortgage rates far is the Fed chair's news conference on Wednesday. He could push them higher or lower, depending on what he says. And we'll be exploring his options over the next couple of days.
