Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 23, 2025: Rates Becalmed. But What About the Future?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 7.01% today, an increase of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.08%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.35%, having risen by 0.12. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.28%, reflecting an increase of 0.08%.
The bigger picture
Two top teams of specialist economists have published their January forecasts for future mortgage rates over the last couple of days. And both think they'll fall over the next two years but only by a very small amount. They provide quarterly averages for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.
Fannie Mae's team reckons they'll sink to 6.5% in the last quarter of 2025 from 6.7% in the current quarter. It then expects three consecutive quarters at 6.4%, with a 6.3% average in the last quarter of 2026.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is no more optimistic. Its team says those averages will be 7% in the current quarter, gradually falling to 6.5% for the last quarter of 2025. Then they'll stick at 6.4% throughout 2026.
Clearly, all such forecasts are highly speculative, as suggested in The Mortgage Research Center's article last week, 2025 Mortgage Rates Forecast: The Case for 5% Rates. To start with, economists can't agree on what impact President Donald Trump's policies will have on these rates.
Some believe the new administration will fulfill the president's campaign trail commitment to reduce mortgage rates to the 2%-3% range. Others are deeply skeptical, fearing some policies will rekindle inflation and push all interest rates higher.
Markets seem as clueless as economists as to what effect the new policies will have. And that may explain why mortgage rates have barely budged since inauguration day.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.01% | 7.05% | +0.04% | -0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.08% | 6.14% | +0.08% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.35% | 7.18% | +0.12% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.38% | 6.54% | +0.12% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.35% | 6.49% | +0.08% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.28% | 7.3% | +0.08% | -0.11% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.87% | 6.9% | +0.09% | +0.02% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.09% | 7.13% | +0.06% | +-0% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.07% | 6.13% | +0.08% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.33% | 7.16% | +0.11% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.38% | 6.53% | +0.1% | +0.04% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.92% | 6.95% | +0.06% | +0.03% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
- December existing home sales — Markets expect 4.2 million, up from 4.15 million in November
- January purchasing managers' index for the services sector from S&P — 56.5 expected, down from December's 56.8
- January purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector from S&P — 49.7 expected, up from December's 49.4
- January consumer sentiment — Expected to hold steady at 73.2
Lower-than-expected numbers tend to move mortgage rates downward, while higher-than-expected ones tend to push them upward.
