Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 21, 2025: The Trump Effect
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.98% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.01%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.24%, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.23%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
A few economic reports are due this week. But their influence on mortgage rates will likely fade into insignificance compared with the potential of our "new" president to move markets.
Before the inauguration, the financial media were full of speculation about what a Trump 2.0 presidency will look like. Will his actions match his campaigning rhetoric? Or will he tone down some of his more extreme promises to accommodate markets?
As former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo once observed, "You campaign in poetry. You govern in prose."
Most of Wall Street hopes President Donald Trump will keep his business-friendly promises, such as extending tax cuts and slashing regulation. But they fear that mass deportations, excessive tariffs and unfunded tax cuts could fuel inflation and put upward pressure on interest rates — including mortgage rates.
On Sunday, The Guardian summed this up: "Donald Trump’s return to the White House ... has the world economy on tenterhooks. Could the 47th US president govern broadly as he did last time, when his most extreme threats were ultimately softened? Or is this time different?"
Late last week, a Barron's headline about unfunded tax cuts read, "It’s Trump vs. the Budget Hawks. How the GOP Spending Fight Could Spread to Wall Street." Another headline from last week was in The Wall Street Journal. It said, "Trump’s Own Plans Stand in the Way of Repeating His Economic Success." It continued, "Last time, tariffs came only after huge tax cuts. Reversing that order is dangerous."
Trump has promised a flurry of executive orders and policy announcements in his first days in office. And markets will likely be highly sensitive to the tone and content of those he signed yesterday and others that follow.
Overnight, The Financial Times's lead story appeared under the headline, "Donald Trump jolts markets with threat of tariffs against Mexico and Canada." The FT story began:
"Donald Trump sparked tumult in financial markets hours after his inauguration as he threatened to hit Mexico and Canada with big tariffs.
"Speaking in the Oval Office late on Monday, Trump said he could enact tariffs of 25 percent against both countries as soon as February 1, repeating earlier threats to strike two of the US’s closest trading partners with levies to retaliate for weak border security and fentanyl trafficking."
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.98% | 7.01% | +0.01% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.01% | 6.07% | +0.04% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.24% | 7.07% | +0.02% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.27% | 6.42% | +0.01% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.28% | 6.42% | +-0% | +0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.23% | 7.25% | +0.01% | -0.16% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.84% | 6.88% | +-0% | +0.02% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.04% | 7.07% | +0.01% | +0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6% | 6.06% | +0.04% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.22% | 7.05% | +0.02% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.27% | 6.42% | +0% | +0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.92% | 6.96% | +0.04% | +0.08% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
And, as suggested above, we may well see Trump's first few days in office having a much greater influence on mortgage rates than this week's economic reports will.
Mortgage rates today and the rest of this week
While these sometimes move mortgage rates, they tend to have only a limited and temporary impact. We'll brief you more fully on those closer to their publication.
