Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 17, 2025: The Gap Between Rates and Media Reports
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.97% today, a decrease of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.97%, down by 0.07%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.23%, having dropped by 0.13. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.21%, reflecting a decrease of 0.07%.
The bigger picture
Every Thursday, Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rates survey, gaining widespread media coverage. But its data are often out of date.
"Mortgage rates ticked up for the fifth consecutive week and crossed seven percent for the first time since May of 2024,' said Sam Khater,
Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist, in a statement yesterday. "The underlying strength of the economy is contributing to this increase in rates."
Actually, by Wednesday evening, mortgage rates were a little lower than they were a week earlier, according to Mortgage News Daily's (MND's) archive. It's not that Freddie's lying. It's just that it's looking at a weekly average rather than the level on the day before publication.
That's great for tracking long-term trends. But it means that some media reporting of the weekly survey can be misleading.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.97% | 7% | -0.08% | +0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.97% | 6.04% | -0.07% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.23% | 7.05% | -0.13% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.26% | 6.41% | -0.12% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.28% | 6.42% | +0.02% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.21% | 7.24% | -0.07% | -0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.84% | 6.88% | -0.09% | +0.12% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.03% | 7.07% | -0.08% | +0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.97% | 6.03% | -0.08% | +0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.21% | 7.04% | -0.13% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.27% | 6.42% | -0.11% | +0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.88% | 6.92% | +-0% | +0.12% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
For example, MND reckons yesterday's moderate fall in mortgage rates wasn't down to economic reports. It said, "Rather, it was comments from a member of the Federal Reserve ([Fed Governor Christopher J.] Waller) and the Treasury Secretary nominee ([Scott] Bessent). Waller said he sees inflation continuing to fall into line along with the possibility of more Fed rate cuts in the first half of the year. Rates didn't have a huge reaction to that, but it was a friendly one nonetheless."
Mortgage rates today
This morning's industrial production report might move mortgage rates a bit. But it rarely has a sustained or appreciable impact.
It's expected to improve, growing by 0.2% in December compared with November's -0.1% contraction. As usual, lower-than-expected numbers are most likely to see mortgage rates fall.
Today's housing starts and building permits for December seldom affect mortgage rates at all
Monday
Markets will be closed next Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. So, mortgage rates shouldn't move, and we'll take a day off.
