Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 16, 2025: Retail Sales Data Out Today
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 7.05% today, a decrease of 0.07% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.05%, down by 0.18%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.36%, having dropped by 0.15. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.28%, reflecting a decrease of 0.12%.
The bigger picture
Looking at Mortgage News Daily's archive, mortgage rates were only slightly higher last night than they were at the start of the year. But they've taken the long route.
Last Friday, they shot up on the jobs report and yesterday they tumbled on the consumer price index (CPI). You could have read the CPI either way; some bits were better than expected and other bits were worse.
But Wall Street chose to interpret the data positively. And that might be a good thing because it suggests investors were uncomfortable with how high bond yields — and therefore mortgage rates — had climbed.
Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal said, "Investors homed in on the core prices, sending stocks and bonds higher. But the data aren’t significant enough to change Fed officials’ plan to hold interest rates steady while they await the tariffs, tax cuts and immigration crackdown that Trump has promised to deliver. The Fed meets in two weeks and has widely telegraphed that it is taking a break from rate cuts."
The Journal meant that bond prices rose, meaning bond yields and mortgage rates fell.
Today
Last Friday's jobs report is typically the most consequential of all economic reports, and yesterday's CPI is often the second-most. During many months, today's retail sales report comes third on that list.
There are a few reports between now and next Friday that might have some minor effect on mortgage rates. But any impact is likely to be limited and temporary. In other words, We've likely already had this month's most influential data, squashed into six days.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.05% | 7.08% | -0.07% | +0.18% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.05% | 6.11% | -0.18% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.36% | 7.18% | -0.15% | +0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.38% | 6.53% | -0.14% | +0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.26% | 6.4% | -0.28% | +0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.28% | 7.3% | -0.12% | +0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.94% | 6.97% | -0.02% | +0.17% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.11% | 7.15% | -0.05% | +0.15% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.05% | 6.11% | -0.17% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.34% | 7.17% | -0.15% | +0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.38% | 6.53% | -0.15% | +0.23% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.89% | 6.93% | -0.08% | +0.13% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today
We're due December's import price index (IPI) today. But that's the least important of the monthly price indexes and rarely affects mortgage rates much.
Lower-than-expected numbers for both today's reports could see mortgage rates fall.
Tomorrow and Monday
Tomorrow's industrial production report might move mortgage rates a bit. But it rarely has a sustained or appreciable impact.
It's expected to improve, growing at 0.2% in December compared with November's -0.1%. As usual, lower-than-expected numbers are most likely to see mortgage rates fall.
Tomorrow's housing starts and building permits for December seldom affect mortgage rates at all.
Markets will be closed next Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. So, mortgage rates shouldn't move, and we'll take a day off.
