Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 15, 2025: Today's Important Inflation Report
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 7.18% yesterday, an increase of 0.02% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.28%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 6.53% yesterday, having risen by 0.09. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 7.41%, reflecting an increase of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday's producer price index (PPI) came in a little better (lower) than expected. But it barely budged mortgage rates.
Today's consumer price index (CPI) is much more likely to move those rates, simply because it's a more important report. But whether or not it does — and how far mortgage rates travel — will depend on its distance from market expectations. Read the details below. Remember: we always want inflation rates to be lower than expected if we're hoping for lower mortgage rates.
Yesterday evening, a Wall Street Journal e-newsletter quoted an analyst summing up how many (including us) feel about this morning's blockbuster report. It linked the CPI to the Federal Reserve's rate policy:
"'All eyes are now on Wednesday’s CPI report, which may be the most important inflation reading in recent memory, as it will fuel the market’s Fed-obsessed sentiment,' wrote Chris Brigati, chief investment officer at investment firm SWBC, today. 'A strong inflation number adds to this idea of no cuts in 2025, and potentially even a rate hike, while a weak inflation data point may help to calm the market’s Fed fears.'"
Tomorrow's retail sales data can also be influential. And, again, lower-than-expected figures give us the best chance of lower mortgage rates.
With last Friday's jobs report out the way, that means we'll have had three of each month's four most consequential reports in less than a week. And next week will likely be pretty dull for mortgage rates — absent bombshell news.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.18% | 7.21% | +0.02% | +0.35% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.28% | 6.34% | +0.04% | +0.44% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.53% | 7.35% | +0.09% | +0.45% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.55% | 6.71% | +0.06% | +0.4% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.54% | 6.69% | +0.12% | +0.47% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.41% | 7.43% | +0.02% | +0.22% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.99% | 7.02% | +0.01% | +0.32% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.24% | 7.28% | +0.02% | +0.35% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.26% | 6.33% | +0.04% | +0.43% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.51% | 7.33% | +0.09% | +0.44% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.55% | 6.7% | +0.05% | +0.39% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.01% | 7.05% | +0% | +0.38% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today
This morning's consumer price index for December could have significant consequences for mortgage rates. But only if the figures fail to meet market expectations.
Price indexes comprise four main elements. Two cover the reporting month (December) and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures (Jan. 1, 2024 - Dec. 31, 2024). There are two elements for each period because there are two measures. The first is the all-prices index, known simply as the CPI. And the second is "core" CPI, which measures all prices except those for food and energy.
MarketWatch says markets are expecting the following for later this morning:
- December CPI — 0.3%, unchanged since November
- YOY CPI — 2.9%, up from November's 2.7%
- December core CPI — 0.3%, unchanged since November
- YOY core CPI — 3.3%, unchanged since November
We want all four numbers to be lower than expected. Higher-than-expected numbers could push mortgage rates further upward.
Tomorrow
Also tomorrow, we're due December's import price index (IPI). But that's the least important of the monthly price indexes and rarely affects mortgage rates much.
Yet again, lower-than-expected numbers for both tomorrow's reports could see mortgage rates fall.
