Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 14, 2025: Stand By for Tomorrow's Consumer Price Index
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 7.18% today, an increase of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.28%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.53%, having risen by 0.09. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.41%, reflecting an increase of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
This morning brings December's producer price index (PPI). PPIs are typically much less consequential for mortgage rates than consumer price indexes, the next of which is due tomorrow. But, with investors paying closer attention to inflation, we might see some movement today.Here's Comerica Bank's chief economist's take: "Inflation reports will dominate this week’s economic calendar. Driven by high energy prices, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) probably accelerated on a monthly and annual basis in December, while core CPI likely matched November’s pace. High energy prices likely pushed up producer prices as well. The New York Fed will probably report year-ahead household inflation expectations rose last month."
All of this is pretty depressing. Only months ago, there were plenty of grounds for hoping that inflation had been successfully reined in. But a lot has happened since.
In its Markets A.M. e-newsletter yesterday, The Wall Street Journal summarized developments: "Yields on U.S. Treasurys, which rise when bond prices fall, got their first big boost in October with the release of strong monthly jobs data that wiped away fears of a looming recession. Then Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election promising policies that many investors believe are inflationary, and Federal Reserve officials shifted their forecasts to fewer rate cuts in 2025."
Mortgage rates are largely determined by trading in a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). Those rates rise and fall in line with MBS yields. And MBS yields have a close relationship with those on 10-year Treasury notes.
Meanwhile, The Barron's Newsletter yesterday said, "The Fed’s challenge is determining whether growth is weak enough to keep consumer prices lower. The latest CPI report is due Wednesday, and it’s expected to show inflation is still too fast for comfort. As we saw last week—any sign of faster inflation and growth right now is bad for stocks, because it means the Fed has less room to cut. A fresh rise in oil prices also won’t help with inflation."
It's not yet time to lose all hope of lower mortgage rates in the coming months. But, realistically, we'd need to see a lot of things going our way for that hope to be realized.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.18% | 7.21% | +0.02% | +0.35% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.28% | 6.34% | +0.04% | +0.44% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.53% | 7.35% | +0.09% | +0.45% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.55% | 6.71% | +0.06% | +0.4% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.54% | 6.69% | +0.12% | +0.47% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.41% | 7.43% | +0.02% | +0.22% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.99% | 7.02% | +0.01% | +0.32% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.24% | 7.28% | +0.02% | +0.35% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.26% | 6.33% | +0.04% | +0.43% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.51% | 7.33% | +0.09% | +0.44% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.55% | 6.7% | +0.05% | +0.39% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.01% | 7.05% | +0% | +0.38% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today
This morning, we're due the producer price index for December. MarketWatch is now saying markets are expecting the all-price index to hold steady at 0.4% growth, the same as in November. But they anticipate that the core index (which excludes food and energy prices) will show faster price rises: 0.3% in December compared with 0.1% in November.
We want both numbers to be lower than expected. Higher-than-expected numbers could push mortgage rates further upward.
Wednesday
Wednesday's CPI is likely to be the most important economic report this week. Markets are expecting three of the four headline figures to be unchanged since November. The sole exception is year-over-year CPI, which is expected to warm to 2.9% from November's 2.7%. But, as Comerica Bank's analysis (above) reminds us, not everyone agrees with those forecasts.
Again, we need to see lower-than-expected actuals tomorrow to stand a good chance of mortgage rates falling.
We'll brief you more fully on the CPI tomorrow morning before its publication time.
