Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 13, 2025: This Week Is All About Inflation
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 7.16% today, an increase of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.23%, up by 0.09%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.44%, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.39%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Last Friday's jobs report was as damaging to mortgage rates as we feared it might be. This week's inflation data might help drag mortgage rates lower or push them even higher, depending on what the numbers say.
It wasn't long ago that the consumer price index (CPI) was even more consequential for mortgage rates than the jobs report. But then the Federal Reserve appeared to rein in price rises, and the importance of inflation numbers receded.
However, some fear a possible resurgence in price rises this year. You can see some of this already in grocery prices. Last week, Barron's noted:
Food inflation has cooled significantly compared to the double-digit increases in 2022. As of November, overall food inflation was 2.4% year
over year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index. But grocery inflation has been trending higher, ticking up 0.5% month over month in November. That’s compared to the 0.1% month-over-month pace recorded in October."
And some economists are worried about the potential impact of some of President-elect Donald Trump's signature policies. They reckon that tariffs, mass deportations, and unfunded tax cuts could combine to create a surge in prices.
If they're right, inflation reports might soon regain their importance to mortgage rates. We're probably not there yet. But a bad (higher-than-expected) CPI on Wednesday could push those rates higher. And a lower-than-expected one could help mortgage rates fall back.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.16% | 7.19% | +0.06% | +0.33% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.23% | 6.3% | +0.09% | +0.4% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.44% | 7.26% | +0.05% | +0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.49% | 6.65% | +0.04% | +0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.42% | 6.57% | -0.06% | +0.35% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.39% | 7.41% | +0.03% | +0.2% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.98% | 7.02% | +0% | +0.31% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.22% | 7.26% | +0.06% | +0.33% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.22% | 6.28% | +0.09% | +0.38% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.42% | 7.24% | +0.05% | +0.35% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.5% | 6.65% | +0.05% | +0.34% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.01% | 7.05% | +-0% | +0.38% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today
This morning's calendar has only one economic report on it. That's the monthly federal budget for December.
And it rarely has a noticeable effect on mortgage rates.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow should bring the first of this week's inflation reports, the producer price index for December. This is expected to decline to 0.3% from 0.4%, according to MarketWatch.
If it comes in at 0.3%, mortgage rates might barely move because investors are expecting it and will already have traded ahead of the report on that basis. If it's below 3%, mortgage rates might fall, though probably only a bit. If it's much higher, watch out!
Wednesday and Thursday
Wednesday's CPI is likely to be the most important report this week, though Thursday's retail sales data can be influential. We'll brief you more fully on each before it's due for publication.
