Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 10, 2025: It's Jobs Report Day!
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 7.1% today, an increase of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.15%, up by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.39%, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.36%, reflecting an increase of 0.08%.
The bigger picture
We've now seen the data in this morning's jobs report and reckon the outcome for mortgage rates today will likely be bad.
You'll find the actual figures below. But they are generally suggestive of an economy that's stronger than was expected.
Why is employment so uniquely consequential for mortgage rates? It's because the Federal Reserve has two main goals: to maintain a low inflation rate in the 2% p.a. range and to maintain an optimum level of employment.
If the inflation level is too high or the labor market too tight, the Fed will likely increase general interest rates or certainly pause cutting them. The bond market that largely determines mortgage rates doesn't wait for the Fed to act.
Instead, it moves in anticipation of what it thinks the Fed will do next. And, this morning, it thinks the Fed will keep rates higher for longer than previously thought.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.1% | 7.14% | +0.06% | +0.49% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.15% | 6.21% | +0.06% | +0.46% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.39% | 7.22% | +0.03% | +0.54% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.46% | 6.61% | +0.08% | +0.57% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.48% | 6.63% | +0.21% | +0.73% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.36% | 7.38% | +0.08% | +0.3% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.98% | 7.02% | +0.02% | +0.39% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.17% | 7.2% | +0.04% | +0.46% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.13% | 6.2% | +0.06% | +0.45% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.37% | 7.2% | +0.02% | +0.52% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.45% | 6.6% | +0.06% | +0.57% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.01% | 7.05% | +0.04% | +0.35% |
Today
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today
This morning brought the jobs report (aka the employment situation report), currently the most important of all economic reports.
Here are the headline data (in bold) alongside market expectations according to MarketWatch:
- Nonfarm payrolls (jobs created that month) — Actual 256,000. Markets were expecting 155,000, down from November's 227,000
- Unemployment rate — Actual 4.1%. Markets were expecting 4.2%, unchanged from November
- Average hourly earnings — Actual 0.3%. Markets were expecting a 0.3% rise, slower than November's 0.4%
You can see that this morning's report suggested a tight labor market, which is good for the economy. And what's good for the economy tends to be bad for mortgage rates.
Also this morning, we're due the first reading of consumer sentiment in January. But reports that share their publication date with blockbuster data tend to be wholly overshadowed.
Next week
This week was mostly about employment. But next week is mostly about inflation.
And next Wednesday brings the consumer price index (CPI), which is the second most important monthly report. So, stand by for that.
Barron's carried a story yesterday under the headline, "Your Grocery Bill May Get Worse. Why Food Prices Are on the Rise Again." If inflation does indeed show signs of rebounding, CPIs could soon again rival jobs reports in importance.
