Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 9, 2025: No Data So Market Sentiment Rules
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 7.04% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.09%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.37%, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.28%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
No economic reports are due to be published today as a mark of respect for President Jimmy Carter's state funeral service. It's officially a national day of mourning.
According to SIFMA, bond markets are scheduled to close at 2 p.m. Eastern this afternoon. That means it's a short day of trading for all bonds, including mortgage-backed securities, which largely determine mortgage rates.
The absence of new economic data today could allow us to get a better idea of how much economic reports are affecting mortgage rates and how much is down to a gloomy mood among bond investors.
Mortgage rates have been rising recently. Looking at Mortgage News Daily's archive, those for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages stood at 7.17% last night having closed 2024 at 7.07%. The increase is greater if you look back over the last month. On Dec. 9, that rate averaged 6.72%.
Some of those rises will certainly be down to stronger-than-expected economic data over that period. But it may be that it's also partly a result of disquiet among investors about some of President-elect Donald Trump's stated policies, some of which economists expect to be inflationary, at least in the medium and long term.
The Fed
Yesterday's minutes of the December meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting body reflected some of that disquiet. In its report of the minutes, The Wall Street Journal said:
"Federal Reserve officials saw risks of higher-than-expected inflation, due in part to potential tariffs by President-elect Donald Trump, when they made a “finely balanced” decision last month to lower interest rates, according to minutes of the meeting published Wednesday.
"The written account of the Dec. 17-18 policy meeting showed officials thought inflation was likely to continue moving down to the central bank’s 2% target, but “the process could take longer than previously anticipated” due in part to possible changes to trade and immigration policy."
Above-target inflation is always bad news for those who want lower mortgage rates.Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.04% | 7.08% | +-0% | +0.4% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.09% | 6.15% | +0.01% | +0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.37% | 7.19% | +0.05% | +0.49% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.39% | 6.54% | +0.03% | +0.48% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.27% | 6.41% | +0.01% | +0.52% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.28% | 7.31% | +0.01% | +0.22% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.96% | 6.99% | +0% | +0.34% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.12% | 7.16% | +0.02% | +0.38% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.08% | 6.14% | +0.01% | +0.35% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.35% | 7.18% | +0.06% | +0.48% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.39% | 6.54% | +0.03% | +0.47% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.97% | 7.01% | +0% | +0.29% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today
With no economic data to confuse the picture, we may today get a glimpse of that general mood. However, any economically sensitive news that emerges before 2 p.m. Eastern could cloud that picture.Tomorrow
Friday was always likely to be the most consequential day for mortgage rates this week. That's because it should bring the jobs report (aka the employment situation report), currently the most important of all economic reports.
This one's for December. And MarketWatch says markets are expecting:
- Nonfarm payrolls (jobs created that month) — 155,000, down from November's 227,000
- Unemployment rate — 4.2%, unchanged from November
- Average hourly earnings — A 0.3% rise, slower than November's 0.4%
The worse the report's actual figures are for the economy, the better for mortgage rates. So, we'd like fewer than 155,000 new jobs and a slower than 0.3% increase in earnings. But we'd prefer the unemployment rate to be above 4.2%.
We'll publish later than usual tomorrow so we can bring you this critical report's actual numbers.
