Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 8, 2025: Critical Fed Minutes Due This Afternoon
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 7.04% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.08%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.31%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.28%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Yesterday, we quoted Comerica Bank economists on crucial minutes from the Federal Reserve due this afternoon. "Markets will intensely scrutinize the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) December meeting after the Committee’s unexpectedly hawkish cut last month," they said. "Members’ justifications for raising their inflation projections will be in particular focus, as will their deliberations about the economic impact of the incoming administration’s policies."
The Fed's take on that impact could affect mortgage rates considerably. If the central bank concluded that key plans for tariffs and mass deportations are likely to prove inflationary (as many economists believe), that could push those rates considerably higher.
Tariffs
Yesterday, we also reported on a story in The Washington Post concerning tariffs. It quoted anonymous aides in the transition team who claimed that such duties would at least initially be raised only on "crucial" imports. Markets responded well.
However, Tuesday's Barron's Daily e-newsletter later said that Trump had dismissed the Post's story as "fake news." It described the fall-out from the president-elect's denial: "Cue a slump in bonds. The 10-year Treasury note [yield] closed at 4.63%, hovering near its highest level since last May."
Unfortunately, mortgage rates have a close relationship with those yields. And, yesterday evening, Mortgage News Daily said those rates "matched their highest levels in 6 months today."
It's hard to say how much that was a result of stronger-than-expected economic data yesterday and how much was a hangover from Trump's repudiation of the Post's story.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.04% | 7.08% | -0.01% | +0.47% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.08% | 6.14% | -0.01% | +0.42% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.31% | 7.14% | +0.01% | +0.52% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.36% | 6.51% | +0.01% | +0.51% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.26% | 6.4% | +0.02% | +0.52% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.28% | 7.3% | +0% | +0.26% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.96% | 6.99% | +0% | +0.44% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.11% | 7.14% | -0.01% | +0.44% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.06% | 6.12% | -0.01% | +0.4% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.29% | 7.12% | +0% | +0.5% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.35% | 6.51% | +0% | +0.51% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.97% | 7.01% | +0% | +0.4% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today
Here are market expectations for today's economic reports, according to MarketWatch:
- December ADP employment report — Markets expect 136,000 new jobs to have been created that month, down from November's 146,000
- Initial claims for unemployment benefits during the week ending Jan. 4 — 215,000, up from 210,000 a week earlier
To stand a good chance of lower mortgage rates, we'd need fewer new jobs and more benefit claims than markets are expecting.
We're also due reports for wholesale inventories and consumer credit today. But mortgage rates rarely respond to those.
This afternoon's Fed minutes (see above) could, on the other hand, send those rates sharply higher or lower.
Later in the week
This week's schedule of reports has been amended to allow for the funeral of President Jimmy Carter. The federal government will be closed tomorrow in his honor.
Friday was always likely to be the most consequential day this week. That's because it should bring the jobs report (aka the employment situation report), currently the most important of all economic reports.
This one's for December and markets are expecting:
- Nonfarm payrolls (jobs created that month) — 155,000, down from November's 227,000
- Unemployment rate — 4.2%, unchanged from November
- Average hourly earnings — A 0.3% rise, slower than November's 0.4%
Again, the worse the report's actual figures are for the economy, the better for mortgage rates. So, we'd like fewer than 155,000 new jobs and a smaller rise in earnings than 0.3%. But we'd like the unemployment rate to be above 4.2%.
We'll publish later than usual on Friday so we can bring you this critical report's actual numbers.
